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Progressive Bet Roulette Strategy

The Reverse Martingale roulette strategy is great in many aspects. It has great expected value, which makes it a great way to play roulette if maximizing the efficiency is your number one priority. However, it’s not perfect, which is why I decided to modify it a bit to create the strategy I like to call "Progressive bet strategy", which might be more suitable for some players.

It’s derived from the Reverse Martingale strategy, which is used by wagering the entire amount won after each win, until a predetermined target value is reached. In Progressive bet strategy, the bets are also increased after a win, but not that much. The players don’t wager the entire amount they won in the previous round, they only wager a portion of it.

Keep reading this article and learn:

  • why this strategy might be more suitable for some players than the Reverse Martingale strategy,
  • how it works in action (supported by simulations),
  • what are the best factors (bet type, basic bet size and multiplication factor) to maximize your chances for a big win,
  • what is the chance to turn $100 into more than $5,000 with this strategy.

Table of contents:

  1. How the Reverse Martingale strategy works
  2. Simulations
  3. Results of simulations explained & recommendations
  4. Conclusion

Note: This strategy is just one of the roulette strategies I present in the main article as the best ways to play roulette. It’s great in many aspects, but it’s not perfect, so I strongly advise you to read the main article and check out other roulette strategies as well. You might like some of them more than this one.

How the Progressive bet strategy works

This strategy is a bit more complicated to follow than the other strategies I present in this series, however, it’s still quite manageable even for less experienced players after a short studying session. After reading this article, you should be able to use it without any issues if you choose to.

Let’s get to how it works. The player always starts with a certain bankroll and has to make three choices. Here are the parameters the player has to choose right at the beginning:

  1. The type of bets the player places
  2. The percentage of the initial bankroll the player uses as a "basic bet"
  3. The percentage (or ratio) of the won amount the player wagers in the following round after a win

Whenever a player wins, he or she calculates the size of the following bet and places it. Whenever the player loses, he or she gets back to placing a basic bet and continues from there. Check out the example below to get a better idea about how the Progressive bet strategy works.

EXAMPLE

Imagine a player that starts with a bankroll of $100 and places a $4 Corner bet in each game round. This is his basic bet. If he wins one of the $4 Corner bets, he will get $36 back from the dealer (including his original bet of $4). In the following game round, the player places a $18 Corner bet (half of $36). If he wins again, he will get $162 back from the dealer and places a $81 Corner bet, and so on. Whenever he loses, he gets back to the $4 basic bet he started with.

In the example above, the player used these parameters:

  1. Bet type – Corner bet
  2. Basic bet size – $4
  3. Multiplication factor (percentage of wins wagered in the following game round after a win) – 50% (or 1/2)

Should the player choose to use different values, the game could statistically play out a lot differently. That’s why I used simulations to find out how the expected results change depending on the three parameters mentioned above.

Adding a target value

When coming up with this strategy, I thought about adding a target value (or a desired win), which is an amount of money that’s satisfactory for the player. After reaching this value, the player could choose to stop increasing the bet size or to stop playing altogether. Let me explain why I made the choice to not include this in the strategy.

The target value or a bet size ceiling would completely make sense for this strategy. If the player wins a couple of game rounds in a row, the calculated bet size for the following roulette spin might get too big. A target value solves that issue very effectively.

On the other hand, a target value would make this strategy, which already is quite difficult to follow, even more complicated. That’s ultimately why I decided not to include a target value into the instructions nor the simulations. I would have to test out much more options than I had to with the current setup.

Note: Of course, if you feel like it’s a better way to play, you can always pick a target value and decide what you want to do when you reach it. It could be to stop increasing the bet sizes, get back to placing a basic bet or stop playing altogether. The choice is yours. Although the results will vary a bit when compared to my simulations. The size of the difference depends on how high or low you place your "ceiling".

Progressive bet strategy simulations

If you already took a look at my other strategies, you know that I tend to use simulations to demonstrate how a betting system "acts" when put into use. Thanks to the simulations, I am able to test out different values of the aforementioned parameters and discover the subjectively best way to use this strategy in a casino.

Note: I used the word "subjectively" above, because there is no single way to use this strategy that everybody would consider to be the best. Each player has different preferences, which influence the choices made. That being said, I will definitely point out which option I personally consider the best.

Methodology and used variables

I find it important to let you know how the simulations were carried out, so that everything is completely clear to you, including the way how to interpret the results.

The simulations were created using my own simulation software on a single zero roulette without any special rules like La Partage or En Prison in use. The odds and probabilities are identical with a typical game of European roulette.

As I already mentioned, there are three parameters that influence the way this strategy is used. Here are the values I used in the simulations:

  1. Bet type – Column (12 numbers), Six line (6 numbers), Corner (4 numbers)
  2. Basic bet size – 2%, 4% or 8% of the initial bankroll ($2, $4 or $8 in my simulations)
  3. Multiplication factor – 1/3, 1/2 or 2/3

The simulated player all started with $100 and followed the strategy until they lost everything or reached the milestone of 100 game rounds. That means that each player could play a maximum of 100 game rounds, after which the game simply stopped, and the results were evaluated.

This structure created 27 possible combinations. For each of them, I’ve simulated 1,000,000 runs. This sample size should be big enough to make the results statistically reliable, although there is still a possibility of some statistical deviations. That being said, the results of my simulations should be reliable enough to get a solid idea about how the parameters influence the expected results.

Column bet simulations

Let’s start with the least volatile betting option out of the three I’ve chosen for these simulations – the column bet that covers 12 individual numbers on a roulette table layout and awards the player with 3x the wagered amount in a winning game round. Here are the results that emerged from the simulations.

Basic bet and multipl. factor% of winnersWinners leaving with $100-$200Winners leaving with $200-$500Winners leaving with $500-$1kWinners leaving with $1k-$5kWinners leaving with >$5kAverage cost
$2, 1/340.5%40.5%0.02%000$5.4
$2, 1/237.6%35.9%1.6%0.03%0.003%~0%$7.06
$2, 2/327%22%4.2%0.56%0.25%0.008%$10.3
$4, 1/340.5%37.7%2.8%000$10.5
$4, 1/237.1%29.3%7.6%0.2%0.02%~0%$13.4
$4, 2/325%15%8.1%1.35%0.6%0.02%$17.6
$8, 1/337.4%23.8%13.6%0.02%00$16.9
$8, 1/230.3%14.7%14.1%1.3%0.12%~0%$19.6
$8, 2/317%6.1%7.6%2.3%1%0.05%$23
Table #1: Percentages of winners using the Progressive bet strategy placing Column bets
Basic bet and multipl. factorPlayers losing everything before finishing 30 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 50 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 75 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 100 spins
$2, 1/3000.002%0.03%
$2, 1/2000.007%0.18%
$2, 2/3000.06%1.7%
$4, 1/30.025%1.19%4.75%9.4%
$4, 1/20.03%2.5%10.5%19.5%
$4, 2/30.12%8.3%27.6%42.7%
$8, 1/39.7%23.2%34.7%43.1%
$8, 1/215.9%34.2%48.2%57%
$8, 2/327.5%53.4%68.1%75.6%
Table #2: Percentage of players losing their entire bankroll before finishing 30, 50, 75 and 100 spins

The tables above nicely demonstrate how this strategy acts when put into use. First of all, let’s take a look at the average cost. With higher initial bets and higher multiplication factors, the players simply wager more money during the 100 (or fewer) spins they play. In roulette, players statistically lose a certain percentage of their bets, which is equal to the house edge (approx. 2.7% in European roulette). So, the increasing average cost makes sense.

The situations with a 1/3 multiplication factor don’t really make sense in this example, because the bet sizes never get bigger than the basic bet. The Column bet pays out 3-times the bet, so multiplying that by a factor of 1/3 just means the player never bets more than the basic bet. That’s why the results are very similar to those of the Constant bet strategy. I decided to include those situations anyway, because I wanted the basic bets and multiplication factors to be the same across all simulations.

Firstly, let’s focus on the basic bet size. Of course, higher basic bets increase the average cost, as I already stated. Higher bets also decrease the percentage of winners. When the players place bigger bets, they are more likely to run out of money, which increases the likelihood to end up with less money than they started with. On the other hand, higher basic bets also mean the players are more likely to win big.

Secondly, let’s take a look at each basic bet size and various multiplication factors. As I already mentioned, the 1/3 multiplication factor doesn’t make sense with the Column bet, so I will focus on 1/2 and 2/3. When comparing those, it’s clear that the higher multiplication factor is connected to a higher average cost and a lower chance to end up with a profit, but it also increases the chance to win big.

The best basic bet size and multiplication factor to use

There is no best option for everyone with this strategy, but I will give you my opinion on which parameters I think are the best to use with the Column bet. The main decision to be made is about the multiplication factor. If you want to maximize your chance for a big win, the 2/3 multiplication factor will be better for you. It has a lower chance to win when compared to the 1/2 multiplication factor options, but there is a chance to win more than $1,000 or even $5,000. This chance is quite miniscule but still much higher than with the 1/2 option.

If your goal is to end up in profit and you don’t really "need" to win big, feel free to stick with the 1/2 multiplication factor. It has a higher overall chance to end up in profit, a lower risk of losing everything, as well as a lower average cost. However, you have to keep in mind you are sacrificing your chance to win big.

Regarding the basic bet size, I think the $2 options are all pretty boring, so I would definitely rule those out. The $4 and $8 options are both interesting and your choice should really depend on your attitude towards risk. Although, be sure to keep in mind that all $8 options have quite high percentages of players losing everything before the 100-spin-mark, even though their chances to win are pretty interesting.

Six line bet simulations

The Six line bet is a more volatile option when compared to the Column bet. It’s a bet on six different numbers that are in two adjoining rows on the roulette table layout. Because of the higher volatility, you can expect there to be more big wins, but also more players losing their entire bankrolls quickly. Let’s take a look at the results to check whether it’s true or not.

Basic bet and multipl. factor% of winnersWinners leaving with $100-$200Winners leaving with $200-$500Winners leaving with $500-$1kWinners leaving with $1k-$5kWinners leaving with >$5kAverage cost
$2, 1/338.5%33.3%5%0.13%0.02%~0%$6.66
$2, 1/229.3%21.3%7%0.82%0.16%0.02%$8.6
$2, 2/319%12.3%5.6%0.3%0.72%0.14%$11.9
$4, 1/335.7%21.5%13.4%0.77%0.11%~0%$11.2
$4, 1/224.5%12.4%9.15%2.2%0.72%0.02%$13.2
$4, 2/313.7%6.4%3.8%2.8%0.6%0.1%$17.5
$8, 1/324.5%7.5%13.2%3.4%0.46%0.002%$14.8
$8, 1/215%3.9%6.8%2.9%1.4%0.07%$16.2
$8, 2/37.5%1.9%2.9%0.9%1.5%0.32%$19.7
Table #3: Percentages of winners using the Progressive bet strategy placing Six line bets
Basic bet and multipl. factorPlayers losing everything before finishing 30 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 50 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 75 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 100 spins
$2, 1/3000.8%4.2%
$2, 1/2002.8%10.9%
$2, 2/3008.8%29.4%
$4, 1/31.2%13.8%29.2%39.4%
$4, 1/24.1%25.4%44.3%56.7%
$4, 2/34.6%43.4%66.5%75.9%
$8, 1/336.2%52.8%63.4%69.6%
$8, 1/247.8%65.7%75.7%80.9%
$8, 2/361.3%80.8%87.3%90.3%
Table #4: Percentage of players losing their entire bankroll before finishing 30, 50, 75 and 100 spins

Right from the start, there is something clearly visible. The average costs are very similar to those in the Column bet simulations. That’s because the average cost depends on the total wagered amount, which is not influenced by the bet type that much.

The basic bets have the same stake in each respective basic bet and multiplication factor combination, so their contribution to the average cost is the same, regardless of the bet type. The bet sizes of the increased bets (after wins) have a bigger value with the Six line bet type, but the player is less likely to get to them than with the Column bet type. These two factors cancel each other out and the average cost remains not that much changed by the bet type.

The higher volatility of the Six line bet is noticeable at first glance, simply by the percentage of players losing their entire bankroll before finishing 30, 50, 75 and 100 spins. A much higher percentage of players don’t make it through the entire 100 spins, which is caused by the fact that this bet type is simply more volatile and therefore riskier. On the other hand, the chances to win big are also higher, which makes it more suitable for players who don’t shy away from increasing risk to have a higher chance of winning big.

The best basic bet size and multiplication factor to use

Just like in the first case, there is no option that would be best for everybody. The option with $4 basic bet and 1/3 multiplication factor is quite interesting. It has one of the highest percentages of winners (only beaten by a $2 and 1/3 combination, which I find a bit too boring), while also maintaining some chance to win big. That being said, the vast majority of winners end up in just a not-so-big profit.

A version with a slightly higher multiplication factor ($4, 1/2) has a lower percentage of winners overall, but the chance to win more than 5-times the initial bankroll is much higher.

The $8 and 1/3 option is very similar to the $4 and 1/2 one, with basically the same percentage of winners and average cost. The difference is that the former has more wins in the medium range (players leaving with 2 to 10-times their initial bankrolls), while the latter has more winners in the 1 to 2-times the initial bankroll and the more-than-10-times the initial bankroll groups.

Here I would advise players to choose one of the three options mentioned above, depending on their preferences and which of the combinations of starting bets and multiplication factors they find the most suitable for themselves.

Corner bet simulations

The Corner bet covers four individual numbers that share a common corner. It’s the most volatile option I’ve decided to test out for this strategy, having a 4/37 chance of winning in each game round, with wins of 9x the wagered amount. Let’s take a look at the results.

Basic bet and multipl. factor% of winnersWinners leaving with $100-$200Winners leaving with $200-$500Winners leaving with $500-$1kWinners leaving with $1k-$5kWinners leaving with >$5kAverage cost
$2, 1/336%26.8%8.2%0.9%0.12%0.0016%$7
$2, 1/224.3%13.8%9.2%0.26%1.1%0.02%$9.2
$2, 2/313.8%4.4%8%0.4%0.9%0.11%$12
$4, 1/330.2%15.2%12.9%1.55%0.58%0.01%$10.6
$4, 1/218.5%8.1%7%2.6%0.8%0.08%$12.2
$4, 2/39%2.7%3.7%1.8%0.7%0.08%$18.7
$8, 1/318.4%4.4%8.5%4.3%1%0.06%$12.8
$8, 1/210.5%2.1%3.9%2.8%1.5%0.08%$14.7
$8, 2/34.7%0.8%0.9%1.9%0.8%0.34%$19.8
Table #5: Percentages of winners using the Progressive bet strategy placing Corner bets
Basic bet and multipl. factorPlayers losing everything before finishing 30 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 50 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 75 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 100 spins
$2, 1/3004.7%14.2%
$2, 1/2009.6%24.6%
$2, 2/30024.3%47%
$4, 1/35.7%27.7%45.3%53.4%
$4, 1/25.7%40.7%58.8%68.8%
$4, 2/316.7%60%75.9%84.7%
$8, 1/349.8%65.3%73.6%78.3%
$8, 1/263.8%74.8%83%87%
$8, 2/375.5%85%91.6%94.3%
Table #6: Percentage of players losing their entire bankroll before finishing 30, 50, 75 and 100 spins

Just like with the previous two types of bets, the Corner bet simulations resulted in a very similar average cost numbers. They are very close to Column bet and Six line bet average costs, which only proves the fact I mentioned earlier.

Also, the higher volatility of the Corner bet was clearly manifested in the results of the simulations. Generally speaking, the winnings tend to be bigger and less frequent and a higher percentage of players lose their entire bankrolls before reaching their 100th spin. These effects are a direct consequence of higher volatility and are to be expected.

If you prefer bigger wins and don’t mind a high chance to lose everything, this bet type might be the best for you out of the ones I’ve tested.

The best basic bet size and multiplication factor to use

Again, picking the best basic bet size and multiplication factor can’t be done in an objective manner, as it’s influenced by preferences of every individual player. I think the $4 and $8 basic bet options with the highest multiplication factor (2/3) are just too volatile and they also have the two highest average costs. They do offer a respectable chance to win really big, but I personally think it’s just not worth the high chance of losing everything quite quickly.

The $2 and 2/3 option seems very interesting to me. It has the benefit of always getting to play at least 50 game rounds even if you haven’t won a single one of them, while also maintaining a nice chance for a big win. It has the second highest chance of winning more than 50-times the initial bankroll, only beaten by the $8 and 2/3 option I ruled out because of being too volatile.

The $4 and 1/2 option is also reasonably volatile, but has a higher percentage of winners with only a slightly higher average cost as the option mentioned before. This specific strategy has a higher chance of ending up in profit, but also a higher chance to lose everything quickly, because of the higher basic bet.

If you are not looking for such big wins and you find even smaller profit satisfactory, the option with a $4 basic bet and 1/3 multiplication factor might be good for you. It has a very high overall percentage of winners (more than 30%), while staying thrilling and keeping your chances for a big win at least somewhat alive.

Results of simulations explained & recommendations

I did my best to provide thorough explanations for the results of each simulation above and I’ve selected the options I consider the most interesting. Now, let’s put them all in one table to compare the individual "champions" to select the ultimate one.

Here they are.

Bet type, basic bet and multipl. factor% of winnersWinners leaving with $100-$200Winners leaving with $200-$500Winners leaving with $500-$1kWinners leaving with $1k-$5kWinners leaving with >$5kAverage cost
Column, $4, 1/237.1%29.3%7.6%0.2%0.02%~0%$13.4
Column, $4, 2/325%15%8.1%1.35%0.6%0.02%$17.6
Column, $8, 1/230.3%14.7%14.1%1.3%0.12%~0%$19.6
Column, $8, 2/317%6.1%7.6%2.3%1%0.05%$23
Six line, $4, 1/335.7%21.5%13.4%0.77%0.11%~0%$11.2
Six line, $4, 1/224.5%12.4%9.15%2.2%0.72%0.02%$13.2
Six line, $8, 1/324.5%7.5%13.2%3.4%0.46%0.002%$14.8
Corner, $2, 2/313.8%4.4%8%0.4%0.9%0.11%$12
Corner, $4, 1/330.2%15.2%12.9%1.55%0.58%0.01%$10.6
Corner, $4, 1/218.5%8.1%7%2.6%0.8%0.08%$12.2
Table #7: Percentages of winners using the Progressive bet strategy
Bet type, basic bet and multipl. factorPlayers losing everything before finishing 30 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 50 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 75 spinsPlayers losing everything before finishing 100 spins
Column, $4, 1/20.03%2.5%10.5%19.5%
Column, $4, 2/30.12%8.3%27.6%42.7%
Column, $8, 1/215.9%34.2%48.2%57%
Column, $8, 2/327.5%53.4%68.1%75.6%
Six line, $4, 1/31.2%13.8%29.2%39.4%
Six line, $4, 1/24.1%25.4%44.3%56.7%
Six line, $8, 1/336.2%52.8%63.4%69.6%
Corner, $2, 2/30024.3%47%
Corner, $4, 1/35.7%27.7%45.3%53.4%
Corner, $4, 1/25.7%40.7%58.8%68.8%
Table #8: Percentage of players losing their entire bankroll before finishing 30, 50, 75 and 100 spins

Eliminated options

After examining these options thoroughly, I decided to eliminate these options:

  • Column, $4, 1/2 – The percentage of winners is the highest, but the wins are too small to advise this option to anyone. The option "Six line, $4, 1/3" is much better in my opinion. It has a bit lower total percentage of winners, but the players at least have a chance to win interesting wins and the average cost is also lower.
  • Column, $4, 2/3 – This option is too mediocre, it doesn’t excel in anything and whatever your preferences are, it’s extremely likely that you would find a better option.
  • Column, $8, 1/2 – Here the wins are also quite small, but the biggest reason for not recommending this option is the average cost, which is quite high. The chance to run out of bankroll before playing through 100 game rounds is high, too.
  • Column, $8, 2/3 – Everything mentioned at the previous option applies here, too, but the negatives (cost, chance to lose everything quickly) are even more prevalent.
  • Six line, $8, 1/3 – The percentage of players losing everything before reaching 30, 50, 75 and 100 spins are too high.

Note: I eliminated these options, but that doesn’t mean they are not good for anyone. You might have different preferences than me, so don’t shy away from using the options above if you personally find them the best.

My best picks for this strategy

So, I eliminated all Column bets and one of the Six line options. We are left with five combinations, so which of them do I recommend? I think the best parameters to use with this strategy (out of the ones tested in my simulations) are these:

  • Six line, $4, 1/3 – This is the best option for risk-averse players in my opinion. The chances to end up in profit are 35,70% end there is even a small chance of winning more than 10-times the initial bankroll. 39.4% of players will not get to play the full 100 game rounds, which might seem as much, but it’s actually the second smallest number out of the 9 selected options in the table above.
  • Corner, $2, 2/3 – If you like risk and are willing to try your luck and go for a big win, this is the best way to do it when using this strategy. Only 13,8% of players end up with more money than they started with, but there is a 1,01% chance to win more than 10-times the initial bankroll and even a 0,11% chance to end up with more than 50-times the bankroll. That means there is a reasonable chance to win really big, at an average cost of only 12% of the initial bankroll. This option is mathematically great for players seeking high risk and somewhat reliable play time, but it might be too boring for some players because of the low basic bet. If that’s the case for you, I advise you to check out the Corner, $4, 1/2 option described below.

Other options to consider

If you went through the options carefully, you know I still haven’t mentioned three of them:

  • Six line, $4, 1/2 – This option has a reasonable percentage of winners in all brackets, even a quite high chance of winning more than 10-times the initial bankroll. It doesn’t excel in anything though, so I didn’t include it in my recommendations.
  • Corner, $4, 1/3 – This option has the lowest average cost and high chance to end up in profit, but the profit tends to be quite small. It’s would be a great strategy for risk-averse players, but I feel like the chance to run out of money before reaching 100 spins is a bit too high for this player category.
  • Corner, $4, 1/2 – This option is a great alternative for the Corner, $2, 2/3 option mentioned earlier, with a higher percentage of winners, but a lower chance to win really big. I find it a bit worse mathematically, but it might be preferable for players looking for higher levels of excitement, willing to use a slightly "worse" strategy to have more fun.

These options are not bad, but not as good as the two mentioned above, at least in my opinion. They fall somewhere in between the two best combinations of parameters to use. Depending on your preferences, you might choose them over the two I picked earlier, so make sure to check them out, too.

If you are looking for even higher volatility, make sure to check out the Reverse Martingale strategy, in which you wager everything you’ve won in the previous game round at once. It’s really "all or nothing", but it’s great mathematically, so it might be the preferred option for some of you.

Conclusion

As you can see from the results brought by the options I selected, the Progressive bet strategy can yield some really interesting results. If you are looking for a strategy with a good balance of risk and chance for a big win, make sure to consider this strategy as your go-to way of playing roulette.

The Progressive bet strategy is just one of the strategies presented in the main roulette strategies article. There are other great strategies that might be more suitable for your play style and preferences. None of them will make you magically "beat" roulette, but it’s good to know the options before making a well-informed decision.

At the end of this article, I want to emphasize that all of the selected options and my recommendations were based on my preferences and you might prefer something else. I tend to go for the best "performance" and sacrifice a bit of excitement, but I know that there are many players that prefer it the other way around.

I hope this roulette strategy guide was useful for you and helped you find your preferred way to play this game.

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