Winning odds in baccarat

Winning odds in baccarat

If you bet on the player or on the banker and the game ends in a tie, your bet is returned.

If you bet on the player and the player actually wins, the payout ratio is 1: 1. So you get your bet back plus your winnings of the same amount. The bet on the banker is in this case the losing one.

If you bet on the banker and the banker actually wins, the payout ratio is 0.95: 1. The 5% represents the commission for the casino and ensures the casino´s profitability even under these types of bets. To put it more clearly, if you bet 100 chips on the banker and the banker wins, you will get 195 chips in return. The bet on the player is in this case the losing one.

If you bet on a tie and the player´s and the banker’s hands are of identical value, you can enjoy a substantial win amounting to eight or nine times your initial bet. However, the win is considerable only at first glance. As it will be explained below, if you want to play for the longest possible time, the bet on a tie should be avoided like the plague. In the case of a payout ratio being 8:1, a bet on a tie is literally financial suicide, but also even if a payout ratio is 9:1, it is still statistically the least favourable bet.

Winning odds in baccarat

Finally, there is the most important part. How should I bet to win at Baccarat? On the banker? On the Player? Or on a tie? If we want to answer these questions in an honest and trustworthy manner, we need to tackle the problem of calculating the probability of various outcomes. The odds of winning at baccarat are not as simple to calculate as the odds of winning at roulette, where it is clearly known what the chances of getting a zero are. In Punto Banco baccarat, there are billions of different combinations of cards that you can be dealt. To get a little help with calculating these odds, analytic software has been used. The results are given in the table below:

Result Number of possible combinations Probability
Banker's win 2 292 252 566 437 888 45,8597 %
Player's win 2 230 518 282 592 256 44,6247 %
Tie 475 627 426 473 216 9,5156 %
Total 4 998 398 275 503 360 100 %

These probabilities will help us calculate the winning odds for all three options in a relatively simple way. To make it easier, let us consider betting one chip each on one of the options one hundred times, 5% commission in case of the winning bet on the banker, and a payout ratio of 8: 1 in case of a tie:

  • bets on the banker: 100 x 0,95 x 0,458597 – 44,6247 = -1,057985 chips = -1,06 % return to player
  • bets on the player: 100 x 0,446247 – 45,8597 = -1,235 chips= -1,24 % return to player
  • bets on a tie: 100 x 0,095156 x 9 – 100 = -14,3596 chips = -14,36 % return to player

The casino is thus at an advantage at baccarat in the case of any bet. This mathematical advantage is better known as the "house edge". The "house edge" is a value indicated as a percentage expressing the mathematical advantage of a casino over the player, in the long term. More information on house edge and its impact on your winning chances is provided in the article How to play games of chance?. In comparison to roulette and slot machines, the house edge for Punto Banco baccarat is relatively small (if you avoid betting on a tie). Therefore, baccarat is the perfect choice for having fun. You can enjoy the game, be entertained, and your budget will not suffer too much.

How to win at baccarat?

One of the options consists in finding online casinos with the most favourable conditions. Sometimes online casinos organise promotional events where they offer a reduced commission or a higher payout in the event of a tie, in order to attract new players and increase its turnover. To reverse the house edge in favour of the player, the casino would have to pay a tie in a ratio higher than 9.51: 1, or reduce the fee for each bet on the banker to under 2.69%. However, we consider the chance of finding a reputable casino that has accidentally set the rules in favour of the player to be very low. If you find such conditions, be sure to refer to the business’s terms and conditions and to thoroughly check the casino´s reputation.

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