Mottorpop's Advantage Play Q&A

Good day everyone, in recent months, I have asked questions and read comments from various threads all regarding Advantage Play in the casino. I thought I would consolidate my thoughts here in one thread moving forward ... and also make it a question and answer thread for those who are interested. To get everyone off to the same starting point:

1) Advantage Play is finding legal ways to shift the odds in the player's favor

2) With card games, this means card counting - the most famous of which is card counting in blackjack. I personally am focusing on certain side-bets as well as the main game.

3) With craps, this means dice setting / dice control ... trying to position the dice and have a consistent roll that will shift the odds of which numbers appear and do not appear (for example, avoiding the seven).

4) With slots, this means looking at those few slot machines that actually give some indication of how close you are to a bonus feature or jackpot and occasionally / rarely finding a machine that some other player left in a favorable position.

5) None of these advantage plays are available online - you cannot count cards when they are being reshuffled every hand, you cannot influence the dice when it is a random number generator, and no other player is leaving the slot game behind in a positive way for your account.

6) My position is that advantage play will be limited to a small percentage of people because of the skills involved. For example, in blackjack it increasingly takes some mental gymnastics to move from learning perfect basic strategy, to learning a simply hi-lo count, to learning a more complex count with side counts or two level ratings. Or for craps, learning ALL the various ways to bet on the table and make strong combinations, learning to set the dice to gently influence the numbers, and finally becoming so practiced and having a steady hand that some measure of dice control occurs with a much stronger influence on the numbers.

7) I have kept my wagers small while in the early stages of training, but my recent trips to the casino have been positive ones. I am currently getting more serious (wagering a little more) as I try to build up a reasonable bankroll so I can move forward with betting ever larger amounts.

Thanks for the info

Well ... I had to do some errands and continued on to a casino to practice at a live table. One of the realizations I am coming to is that in the real world, one will have to deal with other players at the table (cards or dice) ... and it really slows the game down.

I arrived and found the table empty for awhile and finally went over to start playing ... just like last time, suddenly a whole bunch of people suddenly come over and joined in [ apparently no one wants to be the one starting the table by themselves ]. It took about an hour for to get a second turn shooting .. and then another hour to get a third turn.

I am really going to have to make an effort to take advantage of the times I do have a turn ... as I did okay then ... but I was slowing losing when the others were shooting. Just to note: this week it was younger people playing - last week I had a few old men who seemed to know what they were doing.

Surviving the other players has to be part of my strategy and I had been neglecting that.

Before the others joined, I took a more risky shot my first roll and managed to get a win that helped cover the losing I did the rest of the time ... I am not sure I can claim skill at this point because hitting an exact combination is more of dice control rather than dice setting ... but I did try for it and it happened that time.

Well .... I will probably be doing a supply run this week, so I can go the extra distance to go to the two casinos I prefer in this area. One has a blackjack table with specific side bets, and one has a craps table with specific side bets.

Over the last few weeks I have realized that even with advantage play, the main bet on these tables does not improve a lot ... it is a long grind to build up money. The strength of the systems I am using is for the side bets - by increasing the chances of getting the side bet noticeably and with a big or huge payoff when the side bet wins ... I think this is the direction I should try playing for. Just keep my main bet to a minimum at all times and go for the side bets when conditions are good.

I will probably try that this week. In theory and in practice it seems good ... but, as always, trying to keep calm and do everything at once under true casino environments is a different challenge in and of itself.

First ... I am an author and have decided to use my understanding of odds and the casino as illustrations in my book(s), writing, and seminar. I have already started a draft of what I would add. Is it okay with the GURU STAFF if I make a post with a link to a downloadable PDF for the rough draft (when it is complete)? I would like very much to have input on it from other players on how the topic comes across and what details might need expanded. The tentative title is "Defying the Odds" and Sub-Titled "Understanding the Wagers of Life and Death".

EDIT: perhaps it is worth noting that most of the writing is a warning about gambling and the dangers of the casino.

Second, I finally decided to take a look at advantage play in Baccarat. I had read that card counting will not help on the main bet, but some side bets can. OH ... WOW ... UMMM ... playing Baccarat is easier than playing Blackjack ... the count for the Baccarat side bet is simpler than the count for Blackjack ... and the payout is much better for the Baccarat side bet than Blackjack. Why did I not look at this earlier? Oh, and I did not expect it, nor can I prove it from my small sampling of play, but it seems like the Tie bet in Baccarat happens more frequently on a positive count ... that may be useful.

Third ... I found a way to make my home made craps table more bouncy like the one in the casino (simply adding bubble wrap between the table and the felt). I will continue practicing and modifying my roll a bit to deal with this aspect of the game.