Advantage Play Ramblings

Good day everyone, it has been several months since I have participated much on this forum (life gets busy sometimes). Upon returning, I thought I would start a thread where once or twice a week I write what I have been learning about advantage play (AP) in the casino (my thoughts have changed and matured a lot over the last two years as I have practiced and tried these techniques).

Most of the ramblings will deal with land based casinos both because I prefer them and because there are more opportunities for advantage play in a land based casino than there are for internet based casinos.

Please feel free to join in and offer any advantage play tips, experiences, or questions that you may have.

I suppose, I should start things off by answering 'What Is Advantage Play?'.

Advantage Play is simply finding a method or way to win more often. [NOTE: please keep this thread to legal methods.]

In land based casinos, the primary method is to change the odds in your favor. This usually requires having a keen mind for card counting, dexterity in your fingers for dice control, or great discipline in playing a very small percentage of slot machines that give genuine clues to when a bonus round is going to appear.

With internet casinos, the primary method is to look for free play, thus it is available to a broader group of people. This usually involves such activities as receiving sign-up bonuses, occasional offers of free spins, or even the possibility of winning a competition just for doing the playing you were already going to do.

We can discuss each of these methods (and others) in detail as the thread progresses.

Hello, nice to see you here again. 👋

Quite an interesting thread.

My first question is, where do you use the method you describe most often? Slots, dice, card games? Do you have any statistics on its success rate? 🙂

The questions you ask are not easy to answer. But I shall try to put things in perspective.

First, I do not have exact statistics for my personal records as that would require ar greater record keeping than I care to do. However, I know that for the last few months, every trip that was trying to make money, I won ... usually, when I am positive around $100 I am satisfied and leave. During that same time, there were a couple of training trips ... I expect to lose on those because I am experimenting or testing things ... but the losses have not been bad.

I have never made a trip just to go to a casino. When i t is time to get supplies and I drive out near a preferred casino, I will probably make the time to stop for a bit.

The closest casino is a small but nice one about an hour away. If I make a radius of two hours drive, I can now reach the big city to the east, and two smaller cities to the west and south. Combined, there are approximately 21 casinos in that 2 hour radius [I have checked 17 of them out and try to return to 4 of them]. What techniques I use, varies depending on the casino games offered by each.

The table games, especially blackjack, are what can be found consistently. The slot games offered by each casino can vary quite a bit and some casinos are righter on the RTP than others. Only a few casinos have active dice tables, so I like to try that when I have a chance [although this is the most difficult for me]. A few casinos have mini-Baccarat, which is easy to play, but can have difficult counts.

Perhaps the technique I use most: the casino closest to me offers Freebet Blackjack. Many blackjack players argue that this is a poor version of blackjack. From my view, the real problem is that it is sufficiently different from standard blackjack that one must make slight alterations to optimal basic strategy to do well (and most do not do this). Also, while most card counters work on counting the main bet, this is the easiest way to get noticed by the casino ... so I focus on specialty counts for the side bets. Also, and this is not an advantage play, but the D'alembert betting strategy is uniquely suited to playing Freebet blackjack and I seem to be getting positive returns with just that [I suppose a big loss is out there someday ... but I tend to keep sessions short so it seems less likely].

That said, since I tend to leave at plus $100 in table games, any big wins have been at the slot machines which can give more. It is complicated [maybe I will post on this next week], but going to a casino in the morning when it first opens [meaning it closes for the night], offers the best opportunities for my style of slot advantage play. I forget the exact numbers, but I recently entered one at 8:00 am, found a machine that must hit by 75 and the count was 69 ... I decided to go for it. I spent maybe 40 dollars and then won 120 ... I was up 80 in probably less than 10 minutes of actual play. But that was it for the slots that morning [ or perhaps I did experiment on one or two other titles while there].

Thanks for your reply, it was quite interesting. 

I see that you try different things, and I understand that not every casino offers the same games. So you do what you can.

I really like that you have a goal and that whenever you manage to achieve it, that's enough for you. That's probably the most important thing for me in what you write. 

Sometimes it's not how much you win that matters, but knowing when enough is enough.

I'll look forward to your next updates.🙂

Is There Advantage Play In Slots?

There seems to be a lot of interest in slots on this site, so maybe I will make my first ramble with this topic. Some of this applies to both online casinos and brick and mortar casinos ... but some of it only the latter.

Is there Advantage Play in slot? To be honest, it depends on how you define the terms. Most forms of advantage play change the odds / RTP of the game and cause the casino to actually lose money. This is not so with slots ... there is no changing the odds. Most advantage play techniques actually involves a players skill, but with slots it is the happenstance of finding a machine left in a positive state by a previous player ... you cannot cause it to happen ... you must wait for an opportunity. A strict definition would suggest this is not advantage play. My definition above 'any method that helps you win more and lose less' would include this as advantage play even if you do not technically have an advantage over the casino. For the casino, it will collect the same amount whether you win the coming prize or someone else comes and wins it.

What the Casino does care about are 'Hawks' and 'Vultures'. Hawks are the ones who enter a casino, look for slots in a positive or advantageous state, take their winning and leave. The casino prefers players who will re-invest their winnings into the slot machines again. Too many hawks can become a problem as they gobble up the little wins and it becomes less fun for other players. The Vultures are many times worse ... they will wander the casino until they see a machine turning positive ... and then harass the player into leaving the machine (standing there, making noises, staring intently, even asking them to move) all so they can take that machine and take the win. Vultures, if reported, are quickly removed from the casino. Hawks, if they are quiet about it, generally are not. I guess I am a mild hawk and I prefer times when the casino is not crowded.

How Do I Categorize Slot Machines?

Slot machines are not created equally ... some offer lower volatility, some offer more excitement. Games cater to many different personalities and styles of gambling. Here are the categories I personally use to judge a slots possibilities of advantage play.

• Three Reel Slots: There is no advantage play. But the simple one or few line slots typically have much lower volatility than modern machines (having progressive jackpots or bonus rounds). These are often seen in High Limit rooms. A good example is Double Diamond.
• Regular Modern Slots: There is no advantage play. These are the 3, 4, 5, or more reel slots that have no visible indicators or counts. This accounts for many machines in the casino. Examples include Mystical Pearl.
• True Must-Hit-By Slots: Definite calculable advantage play! This are the slots with definitive counters. It tells you the count is at $35.43 and it must hit by $50.00. It does not take much play to realize the count goes up 1 cent for each dollar played. So if it hits near the top, you will need to play hundreds of dollars to win the fifty. Typically, the count must be high to be considered worthwhile. It is not common to find them in a positive state, but it can happen. Examples include Mustang Money, Sugar N Spice Hummin,
• Pseudo Must-Hit-By Slots: Risky, but advantage play if disciplined enough to only chase at high levels. These slots will have counters ... but the rate at which the counter goes up can vary. In some slots, you may have the count rise quickly when the count is low and move much more slowly when the count is high. Examples include: Regal Riches.
• Persistence Slots: No advantage play ... but it wants you to think there is. These slots have something that counts or builds up (such as a bowl of coins, or the size of an animal) but the graphics have absolutely no bearing on the game. You can get a prize at any time. Even worse, a huge pile may result in a tiny payback when a small bonus round hits. Examples include: Dancing Drums
• Pseudo-Persistence Slots: Advantage play is unlikely. These slots have counts or piles that build up. They are not a guarantee of anything, but bonus rounds tend to not come until all piles are full ... and so upon seeing three large bowls of coins you might be a little closer to a bonus ... but maybe not and / or it might be small. I tried playing these for awhile and this is where I had my biggest wins and biggest losses. Overall, they should be avoided. Examples include:
• Morning Play Slots: Advantage play possible when you can verify a machine has not been played. There is an industry rumor that some slots will give a special, small win if it has not been played for a long time to try and get things moving again. I have experimented with this by going to casinos that close for the night and being there when they open the doors in the morning ... none of the machines have been played for six or more hours. This has been surprisingly successful for myself. But the wins are small (like $30.00).
• Bonus Buy Slots: No advantage play. These are quite common online, but I have rarely seen it in live casinos. It allows you to skip all the spins and go directly to a Bonus Round at a high cost. The problem is that with the money you pay, you are essentially paying for 50 or a hundred dead spins ... if you had taken the time to play, there would have been line hits to make up some of the money so that the bonus round did not have to do it all. Also, bonuses may be quite small. I have only done this once ... just to say I did it ... I paid $40 and won $60. I probably will not indulge in that again. Online, I tried this with April Fury with mixed results.

It’s an interesting post, but I think it’s worth looking at a few points in more detail:

1)Definition of "advantage play"

Usually, the term refers to strategies that actually shift the expected value in favor of the player (like card counting in blackjack). What you describe is more of an opportunistic play, more like waiting for a situation to happen, rather than actively creating an advantage.

2)"Positive state" of a slot

In online slots, there isn’t really such a thing. RNG ensures that every spin is independent and there’s no "leftover value" from a previous player. The only real exceptions are progressive jackpots with guaranteed drop limits (e.g., must-drop before a certain amount), where jackpot hunting can be seen as a form of advantage play.

3)Hawks and Vultures

That’s more of a land-based casino folklore. You may find people circling around machines with visible progressive jackpots, but it doesn’t apply in the same way to online play.

4)"The casino collects the same amount anyway"

Not entirely accurate. While the house edge is constant in the long run, in specific cases (jackpot hunts, promotions, bonus abuse), casinos definitely do care who takes the win and under what conditions.

This is another interesting breakdown, but again it's useful to clear up a few misconceptions:

1) Three-reel and modern slots

Correct that there’s no advantage play here. Volatility is a design choice, but it doesn’t create any real edge for the player.

2) True must-hit-by slots

Yes, these can involve advantage play when a jackpot has to drop before a set threshold. However, these are mostly found in land-based casinos. Online, the mechanics are much less transparent and often not directly tied to "every $1 increases the counter by $0.01." Players shouldn’t assume it’s always possible to calculate the value so easily.

3) Pseudo must-hit-by slots

These are tricky. The speed of the meter going up is not necessarily connected to player input in a predictable way, so it’s misleading to present this as a reliable form of advantage play. In most cases, you can’t know the actual odds.

4) Persistence slots

Important to be clear: visuals like "bowls of coins" or "animals growing" usually have no connection to actual RTP or outcomes. They are designed to give the illusion of progress. There’s no hidden advantage.

5) Pseudo-persistence slots

Same problem. Even if it feels like you’re "closer" to a bonus, the underlying RNG doesn’t guarantee this. It’s a perception trick, not a strategy.

6) Morning play slots

This is industry myth rather than fact. Slot outcomes are determined by RNG and are not influenced by whether the machine was idle overnight. Any small wins in such situations are pure coincidence.

7) Bonus buy slots

The description here is misleading. The cost of a bonus buy isn’t "paying for dead spins," it’s priced according to the expected value of reaching the bonus feature. On average, the RTP is the same as if you had spun normally, sometimes slightly lower. There’s no built-in advantage or disadvantage, just higher variance.

Hello everyone! The participants of the discussion have already expressed interesting hypotheses, provided analytics and classification on the one hand, and critical analysis on the other. The undoubted value of this topic in the search for ways to win for a practicing researcher and experimenter. There is a correct and quite scientific method that leads to success for scientists, investigators (versions) and not only. Even without a full understanding of the essence and causes of a certain phenomenon, it can be used. But carefully and seriously, because we are talking about money.

Unanimity has so far been observed in assessing the special patterns of payment of progressive jackpots. My experience confirms that a player can count on it with a minimum of competitors in the establishment ("bull hour" or "tiger hour") and high personal stakes. Sometimes, gaming halls can be deserted even on a hot afternoon.

Also, I know for sure about the successful application of "physical" methods for online Live roulette, with a live dealer. Especially in the case of broadcasting from a real casino. A general idea of the three "Physikalische Systeme" is given by the article in the German Wikipedia.

I myself have now limited myself to improving in "psychic" 😀 methods. It is interesting that for the first time in many years I have an enthusiastic interlocutor on another forum who is following the same path. But, "There can be only one!" - isn't it true? 😶

Fascinating perspective - especially the part about "tiger hours" and physical methods in live roulette.

I guess every serious player eventually finds their own system… or believes they have 😄

Curious to hear more about your "psychic" approach — sounds like there’s a story behind it!

Thank you for the positive assessment. Apparently, I will soon try to open my own topic to consider and discuss with those who wish various aspects of game reality.

I know that the topic starter here has a lot of unique experience, is committed to the truth and is motivated to search. Yes, and is also reasonable and wise. 😊

Putting forward hypotheses is the right strategy for research. The dominant ideology, mathematics and morality imposed "from behind the barricades" (from the casino world) must, of course, be understood. But the player has other goals and ways to achieve them. Within the law, of course.

Advantage Play In Craps

This week I shall introduce dice into the advantage play ramble thread. I know there is a large debate about whether advantage play is actually possible in dice or not ... I fall on the side that it is possible (difficult, but possible).

What Is Dice Control?

In dice control (or dice influence) you try to roll the dice so they only roll front to back (no sideways motion) That means certain numbers come up more often than expected and other numbers come up less than expected. For example, if you set the dice with both 4's on top, and both 1's on the left, and both 6's on the right ... with total control you would never see a 1 or a 6 come up ... but you have the opportunities for the Hard Doubles 22, 33, 44, 55 to come up. [While practicing, how often you see 1 or 6 appear will help you determine how much control you really have]. Different dice settings are used to produce different results (such as trying to roll an 8 when that is the point number).

My Personal Play Experience

So far, my dice control is low to moderate in skill. I know the different combinations to use to achieve different results ... but I do not have my own table to practice on. I did produce a makeshift version of a table to get started with. My long term average is better than expected ... but not by a lot. Initially, since I like playing the side bets and long shots in card games, I tried the same with dice. I tried winning the Small, Tall, and All ... many times coming close (one dealer commented on how fast I did that), but not quite getting there. However, to my benefit, during these long rolls I was winning the passline bet. More recently, I have simply tried to roll a seven on the come-out-roll which does seem to be slightly positive itself before attempting to make the point roll.

Not So Extreme Practice (Like Card Counting)

Card Counting requires extreme focus and attention to detail to make it work to the highest advantage. Dice control is similar. When I first studied this topic, I would read about people who only play a 10 foot table with 20 mm dice (meaning no 12 or 14 foot tables and no 19 mm dice). I thought this was extreme ... but now I am thinking it is not. I have mostly practiced / played 10 foot tables - when I had the opportunity, I tried longer tables and did terrible. The consistency of my throw (to just meet that far table corner) needs to improve and that just requires lots of practice (like pitching a baseball or hitting a tennis ball to the right spot). Very few can do card counting successfully, I think the same is true for dice control.

Worse Table Conditions

A few decades ago, Tim Colins famously made a successful work at card counting in blackjack. Since then, casinos have switched to multiple decks, card shufflers, learned to watch for counters, changed the rules, etc ... all to make it more difficult for card counters. The same is also true for the dice table. Modern tables have made a bouncier surface, added the alligator siding, and a little bump along the edge all in an effort to make the dice stay random. Some older / antique tables did not have these features and it made control easier.

Surviving at the Table

The hardest part to winning at this point is just surviving at the table while other shooters are at play. Even if I am winning a little for myself, it is easy to lose with others. Having several players means the percentage of time I am shooting is low ... but this is quite common. Some players attempt dice control ... with varying levels of efficiency. Many players just randomly throw the dice. I have slowly learned to bet differently with each type ...but any which way, I tend to keep my bets very low with other players and go higher on myself.

Does Advantage Play Exist Online?

One definition of 'Advantage Play' means changing the odds in your favor while a broader definition allows for opportunities to win but does not change the odds of the game.

I have been considering online play and ... am suddenly realizing that it is very possible no advantage play of the first type may exist online. Receiving bonuses, free spins, etc. all fall under opportunities.

So my question for everyone is: can you think of any type of advantage play, methods, or techniques (on any online game - digital or live dealer) where you can change the odds in your favor?

On the one hand, it's good that there hasn't been a massive response to the proposal to name profitable online gaming methods. This means most players are unfamiliar with the topic. Perhaps there are some quiet professionals who adhere to the principle: "Money loves silence." Still, I'll venture to briefly discuss these methods, especially those used by other players—these secrets are worth sharing.

I've mentioned the risks of online gambling more than once, but there are also undeniable advantages. It's not the proverbial opportunity to sit barefoot on the couch with a beer. At home, in front of a screen, you can take pictures, use a stopwatch, auxiliary programs, and much more... Observe for a long time, calmly analyze, make small bets or not bet at all... Use any means to get yourself into an optimal state...

You can use "physical" methods on roulette (either live online roulette in a studio or streamed from a casino). It's advisable to first achieve results at least on your home roulette wheel. You can skip the land-based casino experience. Not every roulette wheel will work, but finding a suitable one online is much faster and cheaper than flying around the world. Regarding the learning process itself, I can say that it's complex and almost unknown. Everything you read online about this is very far from the truth. There are several books that explain the basic principles. We can discuss this later.

I'll also mention such universal methods as Influence (psychokinesis?) and Precognition. Next to that is spatial clairvoyance (for card games). Influence is more suitable for slots and roulette (graphics). And also for sports betting.

In all reliable cases known to me, the advancers of any direction were gifted, searched hard, and worked hard.

After receiving approval from above for my seditious post, filled with optimism, I want to mention another advantage of online gaming: the ability to quickly and independently—with the click of a button—bet on any roulette sector. For example, ±4 or even ±6. Why so broadly? After all, by narrowing the sector, you can achieve the expected efficiency of +3500%! No, the important thing is to "hit" the target more often for positive player stimulation.

A comparison of the effectiveness of different methods for roulette is given by the graph from the book by Basieux, P., where: ≈

- betting systems -7%•••0%

- bias wheel, Bias -7%•••+10%;

- dealer's handwriting, Dealer Signature -17%•••+33%;

- visual ballistics VB -23%••• +65%;

- use of devices -17%••• +105%.

Staying in the black is easy with the right actions and the right gaming conditions. Of course, these ratios are calculated for land-based casinos.

Nerding Out Developing My Own Personal Card Counting System

Well I have definitely taken the AP plunge. As with most, I started with just a simple level one Hi-Lo system ... but it did not take me long to start trying other counts ... and then making specialty counts aimed specifically at side bets. Long term, I have gotten comfortable with these systems ... but I feel like my counting is too slow (especially for faster dealers). and I now desire to use just one system I can be extremely proficient with.

I have not named it yet, but it contains a level two Hi-Lo that overlaps somewhat with the Zen system and contains a level two Middle count ... hopefully no side counts needed. The Hi-Lo predicts the general flow of the game while the Middle shows increased volatility and is especially useful for side-bets. It should work for both Blackjack and Baccarat (and if I ever see it hand dealt, maybe with Casino Poker). On the main wager, my playing and betting strategies are fairly strict ... with a little leeway for Kelly criterion. My main interest for counting is in predicting the side-bets.

The initial tests (only a few shoes) went quite well ... averaging about +$100 per shoe ... but I have not had to face a very negative shoe yet ... and, yes, I know I will need to play hundred(s) of shoe(s) before the numbers mean anything and any sort of real EV expectation can be calculated. And, no, I am not savvy enough to write a computer program to test it on millions of theoretical hands. Simply based on experience with other counts and my playing style, I expect this to do well and as I practice I am picking up needed speed.

One of the benefits of focusing on side bets is I do not look nor act Ike a typical card counter ... it will be much more difficult to notice I am doing it.

EDIT: Just to note, the middle count slightly favors the EOR of Baccarat but still works well for Blackjack.