Prediction markets, the UK’s new financial checks, and Australia’s illegal gambling

Prediction markets have been the focus of multiple regulatory moves, Europe is losing to illegal gambling, and the UK is moving forward with financial checks.

The Gambling Commission, the UK’s gambling regulator, has outlined the processes and steps it will follow to implement its Financial Risk Assessment procedures that will apply to all licensed operators.

The goal of the multi-phased approach is to ease customers and operators into the new reality of FRAs and create an environment in which both can thrive friction-free.

Outlining its plans, the Gambling Commission pointed out that the checks would affect only a small fraction of players and would be a significant improvement over current player protection guidelines.

In the early stages, the Gambling Commission will work to offer guidance rather than enforce penalties for assumed breaches, with the regulator hoping to ensure that the initial stage of the process goes smoothly and allows for long-term success.

In the meantime, New Jersey has proposed a 9% tax on prediction markets, with the Garden State still battling the sector, but also moving to tax its operations. A bill is yet to be finalized and signed by Gov. Mikkie Sherrill, but there are strong signs that this could be happening before long.

In the meantime, prediction markets remain wary of such proposals, as they believe that they ought only be regulated under the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission’s mandate and do not respond well to local and state attempts to exert pressure on their models.

Business and finance

Recording a growth of more than 10% year-over-year, in 2025, the illegal online gambling market across Europe has surpassed the mind-blowing sum of €90bn.

The issue is at least twofold, according to the European Casino Association and research by Gambling Compliance International: the growth of the black market has resulted in both consumer and fiscal harm, with states failing to collect tax revenue from black-market gambling activity while dealing with the fallout in terms of societal harm. The estimated loss in tax revenue is €23bn, researchers pointed out.

Gambling laws and regulations

Australia is taking considerable steps towards minimizing gambling-related harm originating from offshore and illegal operators. The country’s regulators have taken active steps towards reducing the harm emanating from the sector, as part of a multi-pronged approach.

First, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) has gone after a prominent mixed-martial-arts fighter, one Jamie Mullarkey, who promoted offshore gambling services.

Mullarkey was contacted by investigators and immediately complied with the regulator, taking down a sponsored social media post he did for such an operator.

In the meantime, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has launched a new taskforce that is trying to shut down online casinos operating as scams.

These casinos are not only illegal, but they are purposefully malicious, the regulator alleges, explaining that they have been designed to specifically lure paying customers, interfere with their play, and fail to release funds.

Millions of dollars have been lost to this scheme in 2025, with the scammers becoming bolder, requiring a more serious response by regulators.

North Carolina has voted in a new budget that is now going to apply a 6% tax on prediction markets, and specifically transaction fees. The decision by Gov. Josh Stein goes a step further as well, as it officially legalizes prediction markets in the state.

As per the budget, prediction markets licensed by the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission are allowed to run their business model in the state.

Responsible gambling

Celebrity and athlete endorsements spent by the U.S. gambling industry are eight times higher when compared to the spending on responsible gambling and communications, newly released research warns.

This is the evidence presented in the 5W Responsible Gambling CommunicationsAudit 2026 by the 5W Research Division, a leading AI communications firm. Essentially, the gambling business in the United States is heavily spending on endorsement at a rate of 8 to 1 compared to responsible gambling.

Ohio has been actively exploring options to re-regulate its gambling industry in a bid to strengthen consumer protections and create a more resilient overall framework, allowing operators to still thrive while protecting at-risk players.

Now, the state, including the Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC), is edging closer to introducing a new rule that will prohibit the use of credit cards for the purposes of sports gambling, a spokesperson has said.

The Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) has broken ranks with the National Council of Problem Gambling (NCPG) over the latter’s decision to accept Kalshi as a member. Kalshi, a prediction market platform that the MGCB has been criticizing for what it has alleged are breaches of gaming laws, became a member earlier this year, and the decision is already causing a rift.

The MGCB has stated that Kalshi’s admittance effectivelyundermined efforts by the NCPG to reduce gambling-related harm. Another controversy has been the fact that Kalshi openly and defiantly disputes the qualification of "gambling" when applied to its own product.

Voice of the industry

In this week’s Voice of the industry, Casino Guru News draws immediate attention to the recently released iGaming Horizon Episode #3 with AI hosts Mike and Nate, who go through iGaming current events and analyze what has been happening in the industry so far. You can listen to the new episode here.

Casino Guru News is also excited to announce that for a fourth time in a row, Casino Guru has won the Safer Gambling Initiative at iGB Live’s iGB Affiliate Awards 2026, with the company remaining the awards reigning champion.

Through its work on the Online Self-exclusion Recommended Code of Practice and a partnership with Gamecheck, Casino Guru has continued to deliver systemic responsible gambling initiatives designed to strengthen the industry as a whole, build player confidence, and help consumers make informed decisions about their play.

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