Polymarket "bet" on Iran strike date fuels fresh worries about insider trading

• Israeli police are investigating a Polymarket account that accurately predicted the exact date of a US strike on Iran, netting ~$430,000.
• The account, "Magamyman," has a near-perfect record on Israeli military predictions dating back to 2024, raising fears of classified information leaks
• Similar concerns have emerged around prediction market bets tied to the US operation against Venezuela, putting platforms like Polymarket under growing scrutiny

From the invasion of Venezuela and the kidnapping of its tenuously elected leader to what is teetering closer to a full-blown war with Iran with global consequences, prediction markets are once again in the thick of the action after Israeli police launched an investigation into a Polymarket trade.

Polymarket geopolitical trade on Iran spurs authorities into action

The trade concerned the exact date of a strike against Iran, with the account placing a "bet" on the event taking place on February 28, which was precisely what happened.

Concerns have been raised that this type of insider trading could potentially alert adversaries about strategic geopolitical and military plans, which is what former Rep. Mick Mulvaney, who is also a former White House chief of staff under President Donald Trump’s first stint, recently suggested.

Rep. Mulvaney had warned that prediction markets constitute illegal gambling, and further added that they could potentially leak classified information to adversaries and enemies.

This is precisely what Israeli authorities fear, as the plans to carry out strikes against Iran were approved only a few days prior to the actual event happening, signaling that there could be a leak to prediction markets, with cabinet insiders and other related military personnel using their knowledge to profiteer.

Channel 12, a local TV station in Israel, reported on the investigation and said that the relevant authorities were now looking into the account’s previous wagering activity.

In the case of the Venezuela trades, the person who ended up winning about $400,000 from their successful prediction that the United States would, in some form, violate Venezuela’s territorial sovereignty, or/and topple President Nicolás Maduro.

That account holder had only bet on Venezuela-related markets, and only a limited time before the actual events transpired, suggesting that people with knowledge of classified information could already be abusing platforms such as Polymarket.

Near-perfect account record on Israeli military action raises questions over classified information

However, the Iran strike trades, and the account - Magamyman - is not a freshly registered one, the media reported, but rather has been placing trades on Israeli military actions involving Iran since 2024 at the very least.

The account has enjoyed an almost unblemished accuracy record, further raising eyebrows over who may be using it or how they could be getting their information.

More strikingly, the account placed a trade on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being out of power shortly before an Israeli strike killed the Supreme Leader. For the time being, however, the identity of the person behind the bets remains unknown.

Polymarket and authorities are unlikely to leave matters as they stand because of the high geopolitical stakes at play.

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