New trade group backed by ex-Trump chief of staff seeks to rout prediction markets

• Ex-Trump chief of staff Mick Mulvaney has launched a trade group called "Gambling Is Not Investing," targeting prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi that he argues are simply gambling by another name
• Mulvaney contends that rebranding sports wagering as "trading" or "investing" misleads consumers and bypasses the state and tribal regulatory frameworks designed to protect the public
• Beyond consumer protection, Mulvaney raised national security concerns, warning that prediction markets could be exploited by foreign adversaries to extract sensitive information about US plans

A newly-launched trade group is going to aim at prediction markets in the United States, with the body’s leader, a former Donald Trump cabinet insider and White House chief of staff, former Rep. Mick Mulvaney, likening the activity to gambling - plain and simple.

Prediction markets are too much like gambling not be regulated as such

Mulvaney stopped short of using the simile "if it walks like a duck," but he insisted that, as an experienced gambler himself, he was well aware when an activity constituted gambling and when it did not.

Therefore, the name of the trade group is not surprising - "Gambling Is Not Investing." Mulvaney has said that gambling products ought to be treated the same, no matter what the designated term used to describe them is.

Mulvaney’s remark is particularly insightful as Polymarket and Kalshi have repeatedly insisted that their prediction markets on sports are not gambling and cannot be equated to sports betting.

However, state regulators have argued the toss, insisting that sports event contracts fall under local gambling jurisdiction. Therefore, much of the discussion has centered on how these products are qualified.

"Rebranding sports wagering as ‘trading’ or ‘investing’ or ‘predicting’ misleads consumers, undermines responsible gaming protections, and weakens the state and tribal systems built to protect the public and fund vital community services," Mulvaney said.

"The simple answer is that it’s gambling. It just is," he continued in an interview with CNBC. Mulvaney also said that the legal definition does not matter, drawing attention to the fact that if you asked the average person if "buying a prediction contract" on a team to win would constitute sports gambling, the most likely answer would be that "it absolutely is."

Mulvaney further focused on the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), arguing that the watchdog was built to regulate markets, but not protect consumers.

The craze around prediction markets could be exploited by geopolitical actors, Mulvaney argues

The former Republican congressman said that he did not mean to undermine the credibility of the CFTC as an institution and noted that he only had the highest respect for it, but insisted that regulating sports gambling is outside the regulator’s remit.

Besides objecting to what he sees as a misnomer for the activity, i.e., that it is not gambling, Mulavaney is similarly convinced that it could be exploited by adversaries of the country

"If someone’s trading in prediction markets on classified information, and our adversaries and our enemies can draw information about that ... regarding our plans as a nation, how do you address that?" he concluded.

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