MLB Commissioner eyes prediction market partnerships as a possibility

• MLB may be changing its stance on prediction markets, with ESPN reporting on a recent statement by Commissioner Manfred
• The league is the latest high-profile sporting organizaiton in the country to express interest in prediction markets
• Prediction markets continue to face ongoing pressure from regulators and uncertainty over their future, despite clear mainstream appeal

After the National Football League softened its stance on prediction markets and floated the idea of a partnership between the league and these businesses, the MLB has not been too far behind in copying the sentiment.

Last week, Major League Baseball (MLB) Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke openly about the idea of teaming up with prediction markets, hailing them as a logical expansion of the league’s efforts to engage fans.

The news was first reported by ESPN, which said that Manfred was meeting with MLB team owners in Palm Beach, Florida. Manfred reportedly piloted the idea that by teaming up with prediction markets, the league would be able to better protect the integrity of the game, a nod to a recent scandal involving two Cleveland Guardians pitchers.

The idea that prediction markets would add to the integrity of the game, though, is open-ended. When the United States executed a military operation in Caracas, Venezuela, in January, at least one account on Polymarket was flagged as suspicious.

The account had registered mere hours before the White House announced that President Nicolás Maduro had been captured, turning north of $400,000 profit in the process. This raised speculations that prediction platforms are, to put it mildly, unreliable when it comes to insider trading.

Kalshi has sought to change this perception. Around the same time, the platform pulled about $1.2bn in trades on the Super Bowl, the company announced a zero-tolerance policy towards insider trading, vowing to crack down on any such reports.

Commissioner Manfred reportedly told league team owners about the potential of strengthening game integrity by teaming up with prediction markets, while acknowledging present regulatory challenges:

"We thought it was important for the owners to be updated on why prediction markets are different than sports betting – why we might want to consider being in the business with prediction markets in an effort to protect our integrity, to get the kind of protections we need. The regulatory framework is very different. Obviously, state by state on the sports betting side, federal on the other."

Sports leagues teaming up with prediction markets is not exactly a surprise, as several high-profile competitions have already done so. The MLS, UFC, and NHL have all signed contracts with prediction markets, seeking to boost engagement.

In the meantime, Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as the prediction market vertical in general, continue to face pushback from regulators, especially in places such as Nevada.

The CFTC, which officially regulates prediction markets as providers of financial products, is also undecided on who should have a final say when it comes to sports event contracts, but appears to be softening its stance in favor of prediction markets.

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