Kamala Harris overtakes Biden at bookies as Trump reelection looms

Political betting may not be allowed in the United States, but bookmakers are like the proverbial wolf – they would change their coat, but not their nature. Number-crunching is written in bookies’ DNA and this means that we can read into the betting markets to try and get a better idea of what is expected to happen in the upcoming US presidential election.

Kamala Harris now the likelier Democratic Party nominee

According to bookmakers, former President Donald Trump’s chances of defeating the incumbent, President Joe Biden, have increased following an early debate on CNN, which was dubbed as a catastrophe for the Democrats, prompting staunch supporters of the party to question the President’s fitness for office.

Apart from diminishing his own chances of reelection, the debate also prompted bookmakers to consider the possibility of Vice President Kamala Harris replacing President Biden as the Democratic Party nominee for the presidency in 2024.

Polymarket has focused not so much on analyzing whether President Biden would win a reelection bid as much as whether he would indeed end up as the party’s nominee. The President’s odds as the most likely nominee were posted at 90% prior to the debate but have since slid to 49%.

Part of this is not solely because of the debate but rather the fallout which surprisingly exposed hesitation in the Democrats' camp, with insiders questioning whether President Biden should carry on.

Vice President Harris, who has been kept out of the public eye for the most part, other than in an ancillary role to the President, and fulfilling her functions as Vice President, is now given a 35% chance of becoming the next Democratic Party’s nominee for the November ballot.

This is a staggering increase from the original 1% chance she had before the debate and the internal rift in the party. Yet, Polymarket is not the only bookmaker that has calibrated its odds to reflect on the events since last Thursday.

Trump’s chances of winning a reelection seem written in stone

PredictIt, a platform that accepts political bets, gives President Biden a 40% chance of becoming his party nominee, whereas Vice President Harris now seems to be hovering at 84%.

However, neither Vice President Harris nor President Biden has any reasonable chance based on PredictIt’s modelling. For example, when asking its users who had the biggest chance of winning the 2024 US presidential election, 58% of all voters answered that it was Trump.

Vice President Harris was given a measly second spot with 21% of the vote, and President Biden only collected 19%.

Image credit: Gage Skidmore