Ohio researcher speaks about the rise of gambling and prediction markets

• An Ohio researcher talks about the proliferation of event contracts and regulation
• The professor also touches on how addiction works and how gambling addiction affects people
• There is also the matter of the gambler’s fallacy - the idea that we can control uncontrollable events

Jennifer Grant Weinandy, an assistant professor of psychology at Ohio University, has sat in a recent interview with WOUB Public Media to discuss the impact that gambling is having on people and address several key aspects of the experience, including the "gambler’s fallacy" and the rise of prediction market platforms.

Gambler's fallacy is a problem for people as it falsely instill belief they can control outcomes

Professor Weinandy argues that there is a core aspect to why people gamble, and what core pitfall of that gambling behavior is the gambler’s fallacy, which she explains as the belief that because people understand aspects of an activity, they believe they can influence it. However, Professor Weinandy notes that this belief is incorrect:

"We also know that we have different types of games that some people prefer over others. Some people like casino games. They like chance-based games like your slot machines, where I don’t know the outcome, but I’m doing it in part because I just like the high of ‘I might win something. I might win something. Oh, I didn’t win. Oh, I might win something. I might win something."

The professor also notes that people who engage in activities such as card games and sports betting may have an even stronger belief that they are able to influence the outcome of these activities, which in turn drives a higher risk behavior among those individuals.

Then there are prediction markets, which are also driving gambling behavior and will, in turn, also lead to more people experiencing problem gambling. The issue is that prediction markets are not just about sports anymore, but also entertainment, politics, the weather, and other real-world events.

For Professor Weinandy, the argument around prediction market regulation is no argument at all: "This looks like gambling. It feels like gambling. It probably is gambling." Even when people aren’t interested in sports event contracts, there is something else that could offer them a chance to experience "gambling."

"I think prediction markets are particularly difficult to regulate because of how open-ended they are. It makes it really difficult to regulate an industry like that," she noted.

"Maybe they weren’t interested in sports, but I am interested in celebrities. I could bet on that," she notes. The professor similarly explained the psychology of gambling addiction - which is not unlike other dependencies, where the body is expecting that dopamine rush, but is more focused on "wanting" rather than the reward itself.

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