Putin will be out in 2027; a Polymarket user is betting almost $500K on it

• Vladimir Putin, the President of the Russian Federation, might be out of power by end of 2027, a Polymarket user is betting on
• One user is betting nearly $500,000 on the outcome, and is also placing a trade about a possible recapture of Crimea by Ukraine
• The Polymarket user is still trading at a loss in his predictions so far

Polymarket has become something of a geopolitical barometer, with the prediction market platform regularly attracting anonymous bettors wagering on major international developments.

Following high-profile bets on events in Venezuela and Iran earlier in 2026, an anonymous user has now staked close to $500,000 (around $490,177) on the prediction that Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, will be out of power before the end of the year.

One Polymarket user expects Putin to be out of power by end of 2027

The wager comes as the war in Ukraine remains, with Kyiv mounting pressure on Russia and seeking to force it to the negotiation table.

Ukrainian forces have successfully exacted a much higher human and logistical cost on Moscow's offensive by targeting Russia's energy infrastructure, pushing parts of the sector close to breaking point, as evidenced by spreading fuel shortages and kilometer-long queues to fill up.

Russia, meanwhile, has responded by unleashing strikes on civilian infrastructure and has begun importing gasoline from at least two countries to mitigate some of the immediate impact of what Kyiv has described as its own form of "kinetic sanctions."

Public discontent is spreading even as Russia has imposed a near-complete Internet blackout, with social media videos of frustration over the fuel shortage continuing to surface online.

The bettor, one anonymous account by the name of ZnotluvuiSamez, bought 3,658,041 shares on the "Yes" outcome on the "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?"

Polymarket user optimistic about Ukraine's prospects in the war

The market coincides with the 2026 Russian legislative election, which could prove the hardest the ruling party has faced to date. Polymarket’s rules for paying out successfully on the market have been explained by the platform, as previously the platform has nitpicked over the exact nature of a geopolitical event:

"An announcement of Vladimir Putin’s resignation/removal before this market’s end date will immediately resolve this market to ‘Yes,’ regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a ‘Yes’ resolution."

Should Putin exit the Presidency or be removed by any means thereof, ZnotluvuiSamez is set to cash in $3.65m.

The account has also wagered on markets such as "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026" with a "Yes," indicating that whoever the user is, they are betting on Russia’s war in Ukraine to ultimately falter by year’s end - a highly optimistic outlook and one that will certainly be of concern to Kremlin insiders.

In the meantime, ZnotluvuiSamez is trading at a $43,511 loss at the time of reporting.

Image credit: Unsplash.com