Fresh Polymarket accounts make Iran ceasefire bets ahead of Trump announcement

• Polymarket accounts start betting on US-Iran ceasefire hours before it is announced - in one instance, even minutes
• This has sparked fears about insider trading with Polymarket now disputing some of the trades
• Prediction markets are still in a difficult spot where an event can be interpreted in more than one way, affecting the trade

Polymarket is again at the center of a new controversy with many freshly-made accounts registering just in time to place "yes/no" trades on a US-Iran ceasefire.

The accounts, which were newly created and traded exclusively on the war’s outcome, and a potential ceasefire, placed their action on April 7, hours before President Donald Trump said that a ceasefire had been announced.

Traders made handsome profits on predicting a ceasefire

According to a report by crypto analytics platform Dune, 50 or so accounts have placed substantial amounts on the "yes" outcome of a potential ceasefire on Tuesday, which was announced later that day at 6:30 pm ET.

To illustrate the significance of some of these trades, one account made around $72,000 in various bets related to the outcome of the event, with the profit of the account hitting $200,000 as now known events unfolded.

Another account scooped a $125,000 payout, and another account, which cashed out $48,500 which, was created 12 minutes before the announcement. Dozens of accounts ended up in the same scenario.

Polymarket in no rush to pay out outcomes

There are several key takeaways from these events. For starters, insider trading is once again a common criticism leveled at Polymarket and the Trump administration, whose insiders may be profiteering from classified information, a common Internet refrain suggests.

Polymarket has had experience with such trades, as the platform scrutinized wagers placed on the initial strikes against Iran by Israel, and also the kidnapping of Venezuela’s President earlier this year.

Now, the platform is not hurrying to pay out the trades as it argues that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed for commercial ships and missiles are still flying in the region, irking consumers who have been told that the outcomes of the trades they have placed are not actually true, decided at Polymarket’s discretion.

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