Greenland's odds of US invasion now 8%, Polymarket users say

• Greenland’s odds of invasion by US forces rise to 8%, based on Polymarket volumes
• The action is highly unlikely in 2026, but the military success of the US in Venezuela could embolden anti-globalist elites in Washington
• Polymarket recently refused to pay out to customers who had placed selections on the Venezuela invasion

Polymarket has had a wild, wild week. Last Friday, a US military action took the world by surprise, with 150 aircraft supporting an attack on Caracas, Venezuela’s capital.

Polymarket’s geopolitical activity is surging

In the immediate wake, it became clear that some people had registered accounts and wagered on those events mere hours before they were announced (but supposedly after they took place).

The company also signed a data deal with Dow Jones, a News Corp. company, and notably, publications under its umbrella.

Just hours ago, Polymarket said that it would not treat the extraction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as "an invasion" as defined legally by the United States, thus denying payout, and ruffling traders’ feathers who accused the platform of interpreting events subjectively.

In the wake of the Venezuela success, though, US President Donald Trump, visibly elated by the political coup this presented, started speculation about the future of Greenland.

"We definitely need Greenland," he mused in front of reporters, and did not rule out military intervention. Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark, a long-standing NATO and trade ally.

Polymarket traders have responded to these remarks, though, betting about $165,000 on the outcome of the event in 2026, arguing that there is an 8% chance of this happening.

In the meantime, the successful intervention in Venezuela has fueled another speculative market - whether China would finally deliver on its threats of reunifying with Taiwan by force.

China does not recognize Taiwan as a country and has taken punitive actions against countries around the world that do so openly.

While Greenland is unlikely to be fought over by NATO, the prospect of the US launching a military action against an ally has titillated traders to at least entertain the prospect.

After all, once the unthinkable happens in one place, what is to stop the unthinkable from happening in another?

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