Meta's Zukcerberg suggested acquiring Kalshi but no formal talks began

• Meta Platforms tried acquiring Kalshi but hit a snag rooted in the companies’ bosses' differences of opinions
• Kalshi’s Mansour was arguably an unwilling seller, whereas Meta Platforms’ Zuckerberg was afraid of the regulatory and legal blowback
• Meta Platforms is yet to officially debut a new prediction market platform after it pulled the plug on Forecast in 2022

Recently, rumors swirled that Meta Platforms is attempting to build its own prediction market platform, with the company’s boss, Mark Zuckerberg, instructing the relevant teams to push forward with the development of a Kalshi/Polymarket-like platform with a few unique twists of its own.

Zuckerberg may have sought to acquire Kalshi

Now, NPR has reported that Meta Platforms has, in fact, attempted to acquire Kalshi, arguably the sector’s largest player in the United States and beyond. However, talks between Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour did not move past an informal discussion between the two tech executives.

This is not the first time Meta Platforms has attempted to embark on a similar venture, with Zuckerberg toying with the idea once in 2020 through a concept called Forecast, but ultimately shelving it a few years into the project.

It wasn’t until 2024 that prediction markets truly took in earnest, with Kalshi succeeding in fighting off attempts in courts to block it from offering political prediction markets, which many Americans now view with growing wariness.

As to why Meta could not finally buy out Kalshi, there are various accounts of what may have transpired between the two tech bros. For one, Zuckerberg’s reported plan for a signature prediction platform may hold some of the answers.

Notably, Meta Platforms’ upcoming prediction market platform is going to use a video game-inspired point system which will dispense with traditional cash payments to execute trades.

Removing the real money factor could help lessen some of the legal traction Kalshi faces, most recently in Michigan, where a judge ordered the platform to temporarily suspend its event contracts while the case is ongoing.

This could have been precisely where a rift in the talks opened up - with Zuckerberg concerned about the real money model, whereas Mansour, whose company is actively litigating against states, insisted that it is the correct way to move forward.

Mansour a reluctant seller, Zuckerberg worried of legal pushback

Mansour may also have been unwilling to sell his venture at the time, nor have there been indications that this has changed since. Meta will now attempt to revive a Forecast spiritual successor, but whether it hits the mark with audiences remains to be seen.

With a user base in the billions, and deep pockets, not least a willingness to take risks on headline-grabbing projects that may flop, Meta is well poised to become the latest disruptor in the prediction market space.

In the meantime, however, Kalshi may be on its way be on its way to hitting a $40bn valuation before long.

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