Americans skeptical of political betting markets - suggest should be illegal

• A new poll by Politico has taken a closer look at what prediction markets Americans support or oppose
• A lot of the political betting markets, wars, and acts of terrorism are viewed negatively
• Prediction markets on the weather and sports event contracts, however, are widely accepted

A new poll by media publication Politico has revealed something interesting about public perception of prediction markets in the United States and, specifically, how Americans feel about political event contracts.

Voters in 2024 were mostly opposed to prediction markets

While prediction market platforms were originally meant to be used as a way to gauge political polls and their accuracy, and are often cited as a useful research tool, the truth is that since they have entered the mainstream, including with sports event contracts, many Americans are increasingly skeptical of the segment.

The Politico poll suggests that there is a large group of US adults who currently do not think that political betting markets should be legal at all. Among the markets that people have railed against are options such as "Who President Donald Trump will pardon," for example, or what the outcome of the 2028 presidential election will be.

Politico also evoked previous findings about public attitude towards prediction markets, citing data collated from 2024 voters. The publication estimated that 29% of Americans believe prediction markets to be a bad thing, with 19% finding them a good thing, with more people opposing the vertical across either the Trump and Harris camp than supporting it.

What the new poll has to say about Americans’ prediction market preferences

The newest poll built on these previous findings and presented a very detailed breakdown of how the mood has shifted and if. According to the new poll, 44% of adults said that "betting" on elections should be banned.

According to the people interviewed, 64% of people said that acts of terrorism should be illegal to bet on. A similar percentage opposed bets on the outcome of wars, with 57% supporting the idea that this should be illegal.

Another 43% specifically said that presidential pardons ought also to be banned outright, and that what the president would say or what news outlets will make should be similarly restricted, 40% of pollsters said.

While prediction markets may be shedding their political betting roots, the public is not strongly opposed to all forms of event contracts that these platforms may offer, with a significant percentage still indicating that they would enjoy sports prediction markets (53%), the weather (46%), or award shows (45%).

People are split on the fluctuations of gas prices - 35% for and against this type of event contract.

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