AGA says NFL betting handle falls flat, cites prediction markets as possible threat

• AGA has cited the latest numbers on how much was legally gambled on the NFL season in the regulated market
• The newest figure is just a slight improvement - $29.5bn - on the previous recorded result of $29.4bn
• AGA has warned that the emergence of prediction markets and the maturity of the sports betting market have both contributed to the slow growth season-over-season

The American Gaming Association (AGA) has published its latest findings on how much was wagered legally on the 2026 NFL season in the United States, with the company noted that only a small gain was registered year-over-year.

According to the association’s latest numbers, a total of $29.5bn was wagered legally on the season, up from the $29.4bn wagered a season earlier. The marginal growth could be tied to emerging competition from prediction markets, which are "rapidly expanding backdoor sports betting offerings," the AGA noted.

Market maturity, prediction markets bite into the NFL's betting handle

These comments come several months after AGA said that it was optimistic about the sports betting industry despite challenges.

This was not an isolated event, with the association noting that expansion has happened all over the country, in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. Bill Miller, President and CEO of AGA, had this to add:

"We’re excited for the NFL season to kick off, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting has seen tremendous growth. But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called "prediction markets," the growth of legal handle has stalled."

AGA has taken a historically antagonistic stance against the sector, and it even ended up losing members over it - or at least this is the consensus. DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel left the association, as they went on to pursue their own prediction market plans.

AGA noted that the legal sports betting market is maturing, whereas sports event contracts are also emerging as an alternative, which further compounds the market’s growth, and noted that sports event contracts (described as bets by AGA) made up 80% of the platforms’ volume.

AGA reiterates its belief that prediction markets are painting "sports wagers" as "investment"

According to Miller, prediction markets were "dangerously misleading consumers" by painting "sports wagers" as "investment."

"Kalshi and other "prediction markets" say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports betting laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, are placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides," he further elaborated.

Image credit: Unspalsh.com