Offshore gambling continues to steal thunder from Super Bowl betting, says analysis

The Super Bowl has caused a furore among sports betting operators in the United States, with a record number of Americans said to bet on the big game that took place earlier in February and saw the Kansas City Chiefs win in a closely contested and heated game on February 12. Yet, the implications for the sports betting market are equally interesting to look into as was the Big Game.

According to new research by Yield Sec, a gambling analysis firm, only one-third of wagers placed by Americans were done through the regulated gambling market. The company estimates that out of the $5.37bn bet on the Super Bowl, only $1.4bn was bet through regulated sportsbooks. The research was commissioned by Derek Webb, the Camping for Fairer Gambling Founder.

This number though is already at odds with what the American Gaming Association suggests. The trade group issued an early number reveal, arguing that some 68m American citizens and residents would bet a total of $23.1bn. The number cited by Yield Sic seems to be much smaller.

Yet, Yield Sec’s analysis raises some important questions – how is it possible that the offshore market (or black market as it’s referred to officially in the research) can maintain its momentum in the face of rapid legalization across the country?

Worse still, Yield Sec argues that the black market has not lost any momentum between the Big Games in 2023 and 2024. However, not everyone is willing to take the modelling as accurate, although the principle hits the mark, and serves as a shot across the bows for lawmakers and legal operators to take notice.

The Guardian, which cited the Yield Sec analysis originally and dug for further commentary, spoke to John Holden, an associated professor at Oklahoma State University. Holden was somewhat sceptical of the exact numbers, arguing that the illegal market is hard to pinpoint as it’s not sharing its data openly.

However, he noted that stakeholders and lawmakers are taking notice. Yet, some pitfalls are undeniable. One example, says Webb, comes from the fact that even though cannabis has been legal for recreational use in 24 states for many years now, the illegal market is still flourishing, and crimping on the regulated market’s ability to stay in control.

Worse, argues NCPG Executive Director Keith Whyte, the people who may be betting on illegal gambling sites may not even be aware that they are contributing. Yet, the American Gaming Association has seen the segment actively shrink, although the organization acknowledges the decline has been more lacklustre than it had expected.

Although Yield Sec and AGA’s modelling models are vastly different, they agree on one thing – there is too much offshore or black market gambling going on in the United States.

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