Will the government shut down again? What are the odds?

Whether you’re a political wonk, an ordinary citizen, or perhaps most importantly, a federal employee, you’ve likely heard the familiar drumbeat.

Every year, Washington heads into its annual budget showdown, as Republicans and Democrats bicker, posture, and threaten each other in Congress - often allowing a government shutdown to take place before scrambling toward last-minute compromises to limit the fallout.

With the rise of prediction market platforms, this particular political standoff has proved to be a source of entertainment for onlookers, and platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket now allow people to monetize on it.

Government shutdown betting odds - What to know

In a highly polarized America, there have been fewer common goals and more divisive lines to argue about, making a timely consensus on budgetary issues difficult. Standard bookmakers are not allowed to set odds on government shutdowns in the United States, but CFTC-regulated prediction markets, which are technically not betting platform may do so, and they have.

This is why platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket do not shy away from the opportunity to set the markets and let the public hash it out. Prediction markets do not calculate the odds of a government shutdown; they only display what the odds of one event or another happening are by displaying how people are responding to a binary market option - usually settled with a Yes or No.

For example, the government shutdown in 2025 lasted from October 1 through November 12, as Congress was unable to pass a budget bill, and the White House even has a Government Shutdown Clock - it's real!

Who sets the betting odds on government shutdowns?

The betting odds on a government shutdown are not universally set by bookmakers in the United States, but they may be so internationally - some overseas bookies, and especially offshore ones, will take your action on political outcomes, including the chances of a government shutdown.

However, there is an option closer to home in the United States, where government shutdown odds are set by prediction market platforms. The most popular of these are Kalshi and Polymarket, both of which are operating legally in the country as of the time of writing.

They have used their CFTC-issued license as the basis of setting markets on the government shutdown, but neither platform sets the odds itself. Rather, it gives people a binary option by specifying an outcome, for example:

"Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?"

… and then taking money on this by letting you "bet" (although the platforms loathe this phrasing) on either a "Yes" or "No" outcome. Depending on the action, the chance of an event taking place then changes. For example, as of January 19, 2026, the chances of the above market were set at 19%, i.e., a new government shutdown was very unlikely.

So, in the purest sense of the word, it is the public that sets the odds on government shutdowns based on whatever people are backing as the most probable outcome on a given event.

Can I win money betting on the government shutdown?

In theory, you could if you call it early and wager a more substantial amount, but doing so may be unwise, as this is a volatile market, and the pricing would require a hefty sacrifice of personal wealth to even come close to a decent payout.

Government shutdowns are generally less prone to "insider trading" because the issue is so volatile and well-covered by the media, not to mention Kalshi’s own media presence these days.

Interestingly, insider trading is already suspected in prediction markets, not least in the wake of a military operation in Venezuela perpetuated by the Pentagon, which saw Delta Force units spirit away President Nicolas Maduro into the night and bring him for trial to New York, USA.

Someone on Polymarket reportedly earned north of $400,000 by registering an account and making a series of bets on Venezuela-based outcomes, including the fate of President Maduro.

Do people bet on the US government shutdown a lot?

It is not an insignificant market, but it’s still a niche selection to make. These markets are mostly available on prediction markets that people may not be familiar with quite yet.

Prediction markets on government shutdowns still run in the several-million-dollar ballpark, meaning that there are people who are genuinely interested in this outcome and are willing to stake money on such an event.

Of course, political betting is far from normalized. In fact, when Kalshi started accepting wagers on the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election, it was criticized that it would invite corruption into politics.

The alleged insider trading on Venezuelan events and the fact that Donald Trump Jr is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket may not be damning in themselves, but the irony does not go unnoticed.

Instead of a conclusion: Can I legally bet on the government shutdown?

Yes, you can "bet" legally on the odds of a government shutdown. However, it’s important to talk about what platforms you may use to do so. Offshore gambling websites often offer political odds, but they are not legal in the United States, and you ought to avoid them.

Local betting sites, such as DraftKings and FanDuel, cannot offer betting odds on political events, but they have launched dedicated prediction markets, which may soon be able to - if they are not already.

For the time being, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket remain the legal options to place a selection on the outcome of a government shutdown possibility.

However, keep in mind that the legality of these platforms is continually challenged, and they may face further restrictions in specific jurisdictions, including states in the USA.

Image credit: Unsplash.com