What is an underdog?

Everyone loves a good underdog story, but some fans may still be a little vague on the term. What is an underdog exactly, and why does it hold such fascination over sports fans, especially when it justifies the long odds?

In today’s sports betting context, an underdog is a team or competitor that is less likely to win.

Usually, there is a good reason why they are the underdog - past performance, actionable data, and other important details that help flesh out the likely scenario of one team or player triumphing over the other.

What does underdog mean in sports?

Underdog is a popular term for the team more likely to lose, but it does not necessarily indicate which team will lose.

Rather, this is a nuanced term that could indeed mean the team that is all but certain to lose a competition, but also, it could vary in its meaning, indicating that someone has a good chance of winning, but is not the favorite in the match-up.

Take, for example, Super Bowl 60. Before the game between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots, the odds were listed as follows:

• Seattle (- 245)
• New England (+200)

In other words, the Patriots are very likely to lose, as they would generate $200 for every $100 you wager. On the other hand, if you want to bet on the Patriots, you would need to spend $245 for every $100 you win.

The Patriots were not just the underdog; they were rather unlikely to lose. Essentially, if a team is given (+300) on the moneyline, this means that they are very unlikely to win, i.e., they are the underdog.

However, you would still describe the Patriots as the underdog even if their odds were +100 and the Seahawks were -100, for example. What changes in this case is that they are not as unlikely to win, even though they are technically still the underdog.

Underdogs and darkhorses: What is the difference

Another popular term that is underdog-adjacent is "darkhorse." A dark horse is someone who may or may not be able to outperform expectations. The key here is that there is usually not much information known about them.

Darkhorses are usually very common in horse racing, hence the name, as well as dynamic competitions that are based on regional performance that is not well-publicized, such as March Madness.

March Madness is a great example of how underdogs, or rather darkhorses, can rise to the top, without anyone finding out.

Of course, over the past years, March Madness has become a far more important event for sports bettors, with data collated from all across the United States, allowing for fewer surprises.

Is betting on the underdog where the smart action is?

Betting on the underdog is not necessarily a winning - or a losing - strategy on its own. You need to understand the complexities of betting before you choose to back a team or a player.

To this end, betting on theunderdog is not necessarily a winning strategy unless you factor in other important indicators, such as the player or team’s recent form, a possible mismatch in the odds, or recent injury reports.

Succeeding as a sports bettor usually relies on a long-term strategy, and while betting on the underdog can be a viable part of it, you also need to consider the other factors that contribute to a winning strategy.

Will I profit from betting on the underdog?

Whether you profit from placing a bet on the underdog would depend on how often your underdog bets come through. Assuming you can win at longer odds, you will most certainly score a better overall ROI.

However, you may also get banned by the sportsbooks if you are betting on obscure markets, which could give you away as a "sharp" bettor. To answer the question otherwise, you will certainly profit if you somehow manage to get most of your underdog bets right, or at least half of them.

But profit is a lax term in sports gambling, which is, after all, an activity that is vastly attributed to chance.

What are some great underdog stories in sports?

Sports are filled with great stories of underdogs rising to the top.

One of the most striking examples in recent years is Oleksandr Usyk, the Ukrainian heavyweight boxing champion, who defeated both Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury twice each, despite being listed as the underdog in every fight.

Bookmakers largely based their odds on Usyk’s apparent physical disadvantages compared to his opponents. With less reach, lower weight, and a seemingly inferior heavyweight physique, Usyk was seen as the less likely winner.

His opponents’ size, power, and professional records pushed bookmakers and fans alike to back Joshua and Fury, underestimating Usyk’s technical brilliance, speed, and ring intelligence.

However, a far better underdog story that has truly flipped expectations is that of the Denver Broncos back in 2011, when the team opened the season with a 1-4 record.

At the time, the team was struggling to find its footing, and eventually caved in to fan demands to field Tim Tebow, a sidelined quarterback who was looking for his chance to shine.

The Broncos finally fielded him in Week 7, and Denver went on to finish the regular season with a 7-4 season, going undefeated until the postseason when the New England Patriots finally stopped them.

Nevertheless, anyone who would have been betting on the Broncos to reach the postseason would have gotten a very sweet payout. By all means, this is perhaps one of the best illustrations of an underdog comeback story.

Everybody loves a good underdog story

Underdogs embody the unpredictability that makes sports so thrilling. Whether in betting or competition, they remind us that odds are just a proxy of what we can expect (often realistically).

However, even sportsbooks misread the signs when they are there, and sports fans can spot some of these great stories. Understanding underdogs helps fans and bettors alike appreciate both the drama and logic behind sporting outcomes.

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