Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor 2: Will Notorious trump the odds to win?

MAJOR SPORTS EVENTS08 Jul 2026

5 min. read

Max Holloway and Conor McGregor were absent from the recently hosted White House UFC event, but the pair is returning for a rematch after their original bout 13 years ago, when McGregor won by Unanimous Decision.

Now, Holloway is returning for a rematch at UFC 329 in arguably superior form than Notorious. The fight is about more than rekindled rivalry, as Holloway is the current BMF titleholder.

Tales of the Tape

Fighter	Max Holloway	Conor McGregor
Age	34	37
Height	5’11"	5’9"
Reach	69 inches	74"
Leg reach	42 inches	40"
Record	27-9	22-6
Fighting Style	Muay Thai	Striker
Finishing Rate	52%	91%

When and where to watch UFC 329 Holloway vs McGregor?

Date: Saturday, July 11
Time: 5 pm ET
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Watch: Paramount +

Holloway is not dogged by the past - set as the favorite at UFC 329

The first thing that most people will notice about this fight is that the pair has already met in the past. Holloway and McGregor fought 13 years ago in the featherweight category, when they were only starting their UFC careers.

In the end, the Irishman managed to outscore his opponent, securing the judges’ favor. He fought through a torn ACL during that bout, making his win all the more impressive.

McGregor has slowed down his career since, and he has indeed not been present around the UFC much in these past years, with a touted UFC 303 return ultimately falling through due to the fighter suffering a broken toe, which may have landed him on the wrong side of Dana White’s favor who did not invite the fighter to the UFC at the White House held earlier this year, despite Notorious’ appellations to the contrary.

Holloway has driven many notable wins to his name over the past years, triumphing over fighters such as Justin Gaethje, Poirier and The Korean Zombie, among others. However, Holloway has faced some setbacks of his own.

In UFC 326, he lost to Charles Oliveira via Unanimous Decision, going the full 5-round distance against the Brazilian, but ultimately failing to sway the judges’ favor during the March 2026 event.

His previous loss before that was against Ilya Topuria in October 2024, when he lost by KO/TKO in the third round, with the fighter headlining that bout as well. Topuria landed an explosive series of punches that caught Holloway with his guard down, ending in a loss.

In between those two fights, Holloway returned for a July 2025 fight against Dustin Poirier, which he won by Unanimous Decision, outlasting his compatriot in what was an exciting fight with neither fighter able to submit or KO their opponent.

Holloway’s fighting cadence has naturally decreased over the years, and he is mostly fighting one or two bouts a year these days. His fight against Notorious is going to be his second fight in 2026 so far.

McGregor comes into the fight as the underdog

McGregor has admittedly had a rockier late career than his former - and now present rival. Notorious has been absent from the UFC for the past five years, and he last fought Poirier in January and July 2021, losing both fights within two rounds, which saw him exit the promotion.

While McGregor has teased a return many times since, including a self-led campaign to be featured in the White House fight, he has ultimately not resurfaced until now, which puts his form into question.

A degree of skepticism is warranted, but not everybody buys into the gloomy narrative, with Tom Aspinall, a prominent UFC ace himself, publicly predicting that McGregor will most likely drive the fight to an end in the first round, through a KO/TKO.

Aspinall pointed out Notorious’ innate power and devastating left-hand strike capacity, and most recent form, which, while not tested in the octagon for years, doesn’t "simply leave."

The prediction stands to reason, as left-hand strikes are usually difficult to deal with. McGregor’s 74" reach doesn’t help either, as Holloway’s reach is shorter. However, this particular advantage could also become a setback for the Irishman.

Holloway will be coming into the fight very much aware of what to expect, and this will allow him to plan for it. If he breaks into his rhythm, he may be able to keep McGregor at bay and wear him down, not least because Notorious is three years Holloway’s senior, and this age gap could prove another important advantage.