Germany knocked out of World Cup after Paraguay defies 90% odds of defeat

• Germany is eliminated from the FIFA World Cup after dramatic Paraguay game
• Paraguay had a goal against it in 1056' removed after VAR was used to determine that the point was illegible
• J. Tah, whose goal was overturned, also missed the final penalty shot against Paraguay

This was absolutely insane, and if you are a German soccer fan, it probably does not make any sense.

Reality is hard to come to terms with right now, as Paraguay is riding out of the 2026 FIFA World Cup’s Round of 32 after an intense game that saw La Albirroja take the lead, with the Europeans catching up in the second half and a dramatically canceled goal in the 106’, which sent the game to penalties.

What happened in Germany vs Paraguay?

Paraguay won those with a in a nerve-biting exchange with a 4-3 final score from penalties, after the regular game ended as a 1-1 draw. This will go down as one of the most staggering upsets a World Cup game has seen.

Based on sportsbook pricing, Germany entered the game as heavy favorites at 88.57% implied probability, with Paraguay at 14.39% - the two figures exceeding 100% by design, reflecting the bookmakers' 2.96% margin.

Nobody would have thought that Germany, the multiple World Cup winners, would lose to Paraguay, the world’s 41st team on the FIFA ranklist before their historic victory, which saw the team inch up to 34th position.

What happened was a complete outside chance that few had anticipated. Paraguay and Germany went toe-to-toe for most of the game, with Germany clearly setting the cadence, but Paraguay managing to hold its own - its backline bending but never breaking.

And, just like that, towards the end of the first half, Paraguay launched a successful attack that resulted in J. Enciso scoring in the 42’ and taking the lead against Germany.

Time is on the side of the Germans - or is it?

The team then hurried to catch up with K. Havertz, quickly making up for the difference at 54’ equalizing the score. At that point, time started to work strictly in favor of Germany, which achieved 75% control over the ball and pummeled Paraguay’s goalie with a total of 7 shots on target and 21 shots in total.

For the next half an hour, Germany continued to pressure Paraguay and force the team into a near-permanent defense posture, which, to most observers, meant that as the game dragged on, one of those attempts would result in success.

And it did. In the 106’, J. Tah’s goal, fatefully, was disallowed after VAR was used. Tah would also miss his penalty shot against Paraguay, only to see J. Canale score for his team and seal the final score at 4-3.

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