The Unlucky 13: MLB’s unluckiest team's ahead of Friday the 13th

As MLB teams and fans across the country reflect on last season, they may be wondering; did their team run into more misfortune than usual and with Friday the 13th just a few days away, what better time to find out?

So, the team at Casino Guru created the MLB Unluckiness Index to reveal just who was most misfortunate. The index analyzed five key aspects of last season's game performance: One-run losses, extra-inning defeats, walk-off losses, blown-lead rate, and the difference between actual wins and Pythagorean expected wins - giving each team a score out of 100.

Key Highlights:

• The Detroit Tigers are MLB’s unluckiest team, with an Unluckiness Score of 93.73/100.
• Los Angeles Angels & San Francisco Giants follow in 2nd and 3rd with respective scores of 92.49/100 and 90.43/100.
• The San Francisco Giants (3rd) lost 64.4% of their one-run games (29 of 45), the highest % in MLB. They also had 12 walk-off defeats, more than all other teams.
• The Yankees (5th) lost 73.3% of their extra-inning games (11 of 15), the highest % in MLB, as well as the league’s highest number of walk-off losses 11 of 15.
• The Los Angeles Angels (2nd) suffered 14 extra-inning defeats, highest in MLB.
• The Washington Nationals (6th) had 48 blown leads, the highest total in MLB.
• Finally, the St. Louis Cardinals (8th) suffered 30 one-run defeats, more than any other team in MLB.

MLB's Unlucky 13: Who was most misfortunate last season?

The Detroit Tigers find themselves as MLB's unluckiest team last season with an index score of 93.73/100. Although not every part of the index is caused by luck, the data shows which teams’ results fell well short of their season-long performance, and which teams faced more misfortune than the rest of the league.

The Tigers went 76 - 86, finishing ten games under .500. However, when looking at runs scored and allowed, they should have gone 89 - 73, suggesting bad luck had an effect on their season.

Their gap in expected wins and actual wins was 13, the largest in the league. They also ranked highly for several other index measures, such as losing 61.4% of their one-run games (27 of 44 – the 2nd highest) and suffering 11 walk-off defeats, making them tied for 2nd in the MLB.

The 2nd unluckiest team in the MLB last season was the Los Angeles Angels, with a score of 92.49/100. The Angels had a very poor season, with a 62 – 100 record, 2nd worst to the Rockies.

Their expected record preseason was 71 – 91, meaning they underperformed by 9 wins, which is the 2nd largest difference after the Tigers. But looking deeper into their stats, close game results were a real problem.

The Angels went 6 - 14 in extra-inning games, and their 14 extra-inning losses were the most in MLB. They had the fewest comeback wins in the league at 23, whilst also blowing 45 leads. Showing such fine margins prevented them from having a better season, and luck wasn't on their side.

Rounding on the top 3 unluckiest team's last season is the San Francisco Giants, with an index score of 90.43/100. The Giants also had a difficult season with a record of 65 – 97, however their underlying performance suggested they should have finished 72 – 90, based on runs scored and allowed.

The gap between their actual and expected record was 7 wins, the 3rd largest gap in the league and showing bad luck played a part in their season. The Giants lost 29 of 45 one-run games (64.4%), the highest in the league. They also had 12 walk-off losses, the most in MLB, and blew 45 leads, tied for 2nd most.

Notable Teams and Stats

The New York Yankees find themselves as the 5th unluckiest team in the MLB last season with a score of 72.78/100; they interestingly top some of the index measures as well. They lost 73.3% of their extra-inning games and lost 11 out of 15 of their walk-off games, both the highest in MLB.

A painful one for their fans, but the Washington Nationals blew more leads than any other team last season (48). They also find themselves as the 6th unluckiest team with an index score of 72.2/100.

Finally, the St. Louis Cardinals who finished 8th in the index with a score of 68.07/100, suffered 30 one-run defeats, more than any other team in MLB. The Cardinals also had 10 extra-inning defeats, tied for 3rd highest in MLB with the Pirates and White Sox.

Methodology

The Unluckiness Score (1 -100) measures how far each team’s results fell short of what their underlying performance suggested in regular season. It combines five metrics, each ranked against all 30 MLB teams:

• Pythagorean underperformance (25%): Expected wins based on runs scored and allowed, minus actual wins.
• One-run loss rate (25%): Share of one-run games lost.
• Extra-inning loss rate (15%): Share of extra-inning games lost.
• Walk-off loss rate (10%): Share of walk-off outcomes that were losses.
• Blown-lead rate (25%): Blown leads as a share of blown leads plus comeback wins.

Higher scores mean more bad luck.

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