The Best and Worst MLB Teams for Postseason Value

The MLB playoffs are about to begin, where 12 teams will battle it out to win the World Series and those left behind will be hoping next year is their season. But, according to a new study, the true cost of postseason failures looks different for every team.

The study, conducted by Casino Guru USA, examined postseason data over the past decade for every MLB team, from total playoff appearances to the series they reached, before assigning performance points to each one. The total payroll was calculated to determine each team’s expected points, which was compared against performance points to rank and score each team out of 100 from the worst to the best postseason value.

Key findings:

• The Los Angeles Angels are the #1 team with the worst postseason value and a score of 0/100, totaling a payroll of $1.72B with no playoff appearances in the study period
• The Pittsburgh Pirates follow behind in 2nd place with a score of 21/100, as the only remaining team to miss the playoffs in the past decade and a total payroll of $740M
• The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros tie for the best postseason value with scores of 99/100 - the Dodgers appeared in 10/10 playoffs and totaled a payroll of $2.44B, while the Astros made 8/10 playoffs and totaled $1.75B
• The Astros boast the lowest cost per postseason performance point at $58M, with four World Series appearances and two of those resulting in a win
• On average, the five teams with the worst postseason value spent an average of $153M per failure, with the top five teams averaging $69M per performance point

Top five teams with the worst postseason value

The Los Angeles Angels top the list as the team with the worst postseason value, scoring 0/100. With a payroll of $1.72 billion from 2016 to 2025, which ranks within the top 10 highest totals of all teams, the study assigned the Angels 12.4 points for their expected playoff performance. But as only one of two teams to have never made a postseason appearance within the past 10 years, they scored the lowest possible 0.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are next on the list with a postseason value score of 21/100. The Pirates’ total payroll over the previous 10 seasons is considerably smaller than the Angels’ at $740 million, the third lowest among all MLB teams, so their expected points sit much lower at 2. But, following suit, they are the only remaining team to have never made an appearance in the postseason over the study timeframe, leading to 0 points.

Third place goes to the New York Mets, scoring 22/100. The Mets’ total payroll of $2.15 billion over the previous 10 seasons is the third highest in the entire league, and with such a high number comes high hopes, resulting in 16.4 expected points. But, while Mets supporters have endured less postseason heartbreak than fans of the Angels and the Pirates, they’ve only reached the playoffs three times in 10 years and won just eight games in total, taking just 5 performance points – a decrease of 70% compared to their expected points.

Ranking fourth are the San Francisco Giants with a postseason value score of 27/100. With only two playoff appearances, in which fans saw four game wins across both, the Giants received a meager 4 points for their performance – a 69% decrease in comparison to their expected points of 12.7 based on their total payroll of $1.74 billion.

The Colorado Rockies take the fifth spot, scoring 34/100. While having the same number of postseason appearances as the Giants, the Rockies only won one game across the two that they appeared in, leaving them with just 3 performance points in comparison to the 8.4 expected points from a total payroll of $1.32 billion.

Top five teams with the best postseason value

The Los Angeles Dodgers rank top of the list with the highest postseason value score of 99/100. The Dodgers’ total payroll is the highest in the league at $2.44 billion, leading to 20.4 expected points – but, given their achievements, it’s money well spent. The Dodgers have appeared in every postseason of the previous 10 years, making it all the way to the World Series five times and winning it three times – the most of any team – and winning 68 games in total, resulting in the most performance points at 38. In fact, the Dodgers’ cost per achievement point is just $64 million, the third lowest overall and 72% lower than the league’s average of $226 million.

The Houston Astros also score 99/100, sharing first place with the Dodgers. In the eight postseasons they’ve appeared in from 2016 to 2025, the Astros got through to the World Series four times and won twice – ranking second after the Dodgers for championship title wins and securing 30 points. Despite the Astros having fewer achievements under their belt than the Dodgers, their total payroll is less at $1.75 billion, equating to 12.7 expected points and giving them the lowest cost per achievement point of all teams at $58 million.

The Cleveland Guardians sit in third place, scoring 86/100. The Guardians have reached seven of the last 10 postseasons, winning 21 games throughout, as well as reaching the World Series once but being defeated. Based on a low payroll of $940 million, the fifth lowest in the league, the study assigned the Guardians 4.3 expected points, yet they almost quadrupled this to 15 performance points in total – and they boast the league’s second lowest cost per achievement point of $63 million.

In fourth place are the Tampa Bay Rays, with a postseason value score of 79/100. Although they’ve appeared in fewer postseasons, one of those five led to a World Series appearance, earning them 10 playoff performance points – and with the second lowest payroll of $730 million, the Rays were given 1.9 expected points, equating to a +8.1 point difference.

The Atlanta Braves rank fifth, scoring 76/100. Reaching seven of the 10 postseasons, winning 24 games in total, and winning the one World Series they appeared in, the Braves earned 18 points for their past performance, which is a 77% increase in comparison to their expected 10.2 points from their $1.54 billion payroll.

Can postseason success be bought?

The findings revealed that from 2016 to 2025, teams that ranked among the top five for payroll made it to the playoffs 68% of the time, reached the World Series 24% of the time, and won the title 12% of the time.

On the flipside, teams ranking in the bottom five for payroll over the ten-year-period weren’t as fortunate, only making it to the playoffs 18% of the time, competing in the World Series 2% of the time, and never winning the championship.

Looking closely at the World Series champions, nine of them ranked among the top 10 for payrolls in the same year. But like with every sport, MLB is unpredictable – and a place in the playoffs isn’t solely determined by spend, with the Angels and Mets backing this up. The outlier in this case, the Houston Astros, won the title in 2017 despite ranking 17th for payroll at $138 million.

Season-by-season: The worst flops and the biggest bargains

The study also uncovered the teams with the most expensive seasons that were unsuccessful in the playoffs – and the New York Mets, in third for the overall worst postseason value, take the top two spots.

The Mets’ 2023 season saw the highest payroll of any team that year at $348 million, yet they didn’t make it to the postseason after racking up 87 losses and only 75 wins in the regular season. The payroll for their 2025 season was slightly lower at $342 million, the second-highest overall, but with 83 wins and 79 losses, they lost their chance to compete for the World Series title.

However, some teams got a lot more bang for their buck. In 2020, when every team’s payroll was prorated due to the shortened season, the Tampa Bay Rays’ payroll was $28 million - the third-lowest in the whole league. While they reached the World Series but didn’t win, they recorded just 20 losses and 40 wins.

Conclusion

While money can play a part in postseason success, it won’t guarantee a spot, let alone a World Series win – and teams like the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Mets demonstrate that it will only go so far.

Methodology

In August 2026, Casino Guru USA gathered payroll data from Spotrac (active, injured, retained, buried) for every MLB team as well as postseason results from 2016-2025. Performance points were assigned and calculated based on the following:

• Missed playoffs – 0 points
• Lost Wild Card – 1 point
• Lost Division Series – 2 points
• Lost LCS – 3 points
• Lost World Series – 4 points
• Won World Series – 6 points

A straight line fitted across all 300 team-seasons gives the points a given payroll should buy (a club at league-average payroll is expected to earn about 0.9 points a season; each extra league-average payroll adds 1.5). The following calculation was used to determine expected points:

• -0.59 + 1.50 x (team payroll / league-average payroll that season)

Each team’s value score was then assigned using the calculation below:

• Efficiency ratio = (team achievement points / all achievement points) / (team payroll / all payroll).
• 100 x [0.6 x min-max (points vs expected) + 0.4 x min-max (log efficiency ratio)], efficiency, floored at 0.05 for zero-point teams

The analysis also used the following cost metrics for further detail:

• Cost per achievement point / playoff appearance / series win / game win / WS appearance / title - Ten-year payroll divided by the count of that outcome; zero outcomes = infinite (shown blank, ranked most expensive)
• Cost per failure - Payroll in seasons that ended without a title / number of those seasons
• Cost per failure point - Ten-year payroll / weighted failure points (missed playoffs 1.0, lost WC 0.8, lost DS 0.6, lost LCS 0.4, lost WS 0.2, title 0)
• Cost per missed postseason - Payroll in seasons with no playoff appearance / number of those seasons
• Cost per regular-season win - Ten-year payroll / regular-season wins

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