The NFL Pressure Index: Which NFL Teams Are Under The Most Pressure?

ANALYSES14 Oct 2026

7 min. read

QB Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers / Credit: Wikimedia Commons

The NFL season is officially 5 weeks in; teams are beginning to settle their line ups, and fans can get a clearer view of what type of year they are in for.

As preparations for Week 6 are underway, Casino Guru has created the first edition of The NFL Pressure Index – a four-part study showing which teams are truly under the most pressure throughout the season.

The index combines five statistics: Underperformance against preseason expectations (25%), recent form (20%), painful defeats (15%), playoff pressure (20%), injuries (10%) and performance red flags (10%) to produce a score out of 100.

The NFL Pressure Index Table and a full detailed methodology can be found at the bottom of the page.

The Los Angeles Chargers top the NFL Pressure Index, with the Eagles and Saints also struggling

Los Angeles Chargers – 1st

The Chargers have had a poor start to the season and find themselves not only 0-5 but consequently now the team is under the most pressure within the NFL, with an index score of 89.2/100. Preseason expectations gave Los Angeles a projected win total of 9.5, however their winless start means they are already 3 wins behind that pace after 5 weeks.

The team's playoff hopes have also dropped an estimated 30.6%after 5 weeks, now sitting at just 2%. They have also suffered some of the league's most painful defeats this season. Across all games played so far, they reached an average high live win probability of 74%, including 2 of their defeats in which their chances of winning exceeded 80%.

Philadelphia Eagles – 2nd

Following a devastating last second field goal from the Jags, the Philadelphia Eagles now find themselves the team under the second most pressure after 5 weeks, with a Pressure Index Score of 87.5/100. Just like the chargers, the Eagles are also falling short of preseason expectations so far. They entered the season with a projected win total of 10.5, but have started 2-3, 0.9 wins behind their expected total after 5 games.

The study gave teams an initial ranking after 3 weeks, and Philadelphia found themselves 2-1 in the league and 15th in the index. However, recent results and other factors considered by the index have seen the Eagles climb 13 places to 2nd after Week 5. Their playoff hopes have also dramatically reduced, with the probability falling from 69% to 41%.

New Orleans Saints – 3rd

Rounding out the top 3 teams under the most pressure so far this season is the New Orleans Saints (85.2/100). As expected, they are also falling behind their preseason expectations. New Orleans came in with a projected win total of 8.5 but have started 1-4, leaving them 1.2 wins behind their expected wins at this stage.

The Saints have moved up 11 places in the Pressure Index Rankings since Week 3, with their score increasing from 57.5 to 85.2, showing a recent decline in the team's performance and an increase in pressure on them to perform. Looking at New Orleans playoff chances within the study, they have seen a decrease from 37% to just 13%, further highlighting the pressure Kelen Moore’s team is under.

Minnesota Vikings are under the least pressure, and The Patriots drop 13 places

The Minnesota Vikings have lots to be positive about after their 5-0 start, and now their fans will be happy to know they are statistically under the least pressure of all NFL teams with a Pressure Index Score of just 8.9/100.

The Vikingshad2.8 expected wins at this stage, but after their flawless start, they are now2.2 wins ahead of expectations. Looking at their rivals in the NFC North, they also rank under much less pressure - The Packers (45.2/100), Lions (48.9/100) and Bears (62.5/10).

The Patriots (40.7/100) are coming off solid back-to-back wins against the Bills and Raiders, which has helped see them fall down the Pressure Index Rankings. New England have experienced the NFL's biggest drop, and their score has fallen 40.3 points, from 81 to 40.7. This drop places them at 21st in the rankings compared to 8th just a few weeks ago.

In contrast to The Patriots, The Bears have seen the league's biggest increase in pressure, climbing 15 places in the NFL Pressure Rankings. Chicago has seen their score increase from 30.9 to 62.5/100, meaning they now sit in 10th. Alongside this, their estimated playoff probability has fallen from 67% to 49%, leaving the Bears with roughly a 50/50 chance of reaching the postseason.

Rank	Team	Record	Week 5 Pressure Score / 100	Week 3 Pressure Score / 100	Pressure Increase / Decrease
1	Los Angeles Chargers	0-5	89.2	87.6	1.6
2	Philadelphia Eagles	2-3	87.5	56.7	30.8
3	New Orleans Saints	1-4	85.2	57.5	27.7
4	Miami Dolphins	0-5	74.7	73.2	1.5
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-4	73.8	82.6	-8.8
6	Tennessee Titans	0-5	72.9	69.2	3.7
7	Houston Texans	1-4	68.8	85.8	-17
8	Washington Commanders	1-3-1	67.2	58	9.2
9	Arizona Cardinals	1-4	67	46.8	20.2
10	Los Angeles Rams	2-3	62.5	77	-14.5
10	Chicago Bears	3-2	62.5	30.9	31.6
12	Dallas Cowboys	2-3	61.9	62.2	-0.3
13	Indianapolis Colts	2-3	52.6	64.8	-12.2
14	Seattle Seahawks	3-2	51.2	39.4	11.8
15	Cincinnati Bengals	3-2	49.9	32.6	17.3
16	Pittsburgh Steelers	3-2	49.2	42.5	6.7
17	Detroit Lions	3-2	48.9	46.2	2.7
18	New York Jets	2-3	46.4	49.4	-3
19	Green Bay Packers	3-2	45.2	81.3	-36.1
20	Atlanta Falcons	2-3	42.3	65.5	-23.2
21	New England Patriots	3-2	40.7	81	-40.3
22	Las Vegas Raiders	3-2	37.9	9.7	28.2
23	Baltimore Ravens	4-1	37	36.4	0.6
24	New York Giants	3-1-1	36.8	43.3	-6.5
25	Carolina Panthers	2-2	33.6	63.5	-29.9
26	Denver Broncos	3-2	29.7	34.5	-4.8
27	Cleveland Browns	3-2	27.3	29.4	-2.1
28	Buffalo Bills	4-1	25	12.7	12.3
29	Kansas City Chiefs	4-0	13.8	12.7	1.1
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	4-1	11	18.8	-7.8
31	San Francisco 49ers	5-0	10.6	14.3	-3.7
32	Minnesota Vikings	5-0	8.9	9.6	-0.7

Methodology

The NFL Pressure Index analyzed all 32 NFL teams across the opening five weeks of the 2026 season to identify which teams are facing the greatest pressure based on their performances, preseason expectations, and current circumstances.

Each team was assessed using six key factors, which were combined to produce an overall Pressure Index score out of 100. The higher the score, the greater the level of pressure facing that team.

The six factors were:

Performance against preseason expectations (27.8%): Compares each team's actual results with its expected performance heading into the season.

Recent form (22.2%): Assesses each team's results across the opening five weeks of the season.

Painful defeats (15%): Examines how teams have lost games, including defeats in which they held a strong chance of winning.

Playoff pressure (15%): Considers each team's estimated playoff chances, how those chances have changed, and the importance of upcoming results to their postseason prospects.

Injury pressure (10%): Accounts for the impact of injuries and unavailable key players.

Performance red flags (10%): Examines underlying indicators of poor performance that could suggest wider problems beyond a team's win-loss record.

Each factor was converted into a score out of 100 before being combined using its respective weighting to calculate the final Pressure Index score.

Dynamic Weighting

The index adjusts its weighting throughout the season to reflect the growing importance of reaching the playoffs.

Playoff pressure accounts for 10% of the score in Week 1, rising to 20% by Week 9 and 30% by Week 17. As this increases, slightly less weight is given to preseason expectations and recent form.

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TOPICS: NFL