Caleb Williams at No. 6, Jalen Hurts Fails to Make the Cut; NFL Insider Jason La Canfora Names His Top 10 Projected Ranking Quarterbacks

The NFL is constantly changing and the prototype franchise quarterback model has changed markedly in just a decade or so.

Go back to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, even toward the later stages of their career, just as the baton was about to be passed to Patrick Mahomes, and old-school, drop back passers, without improvisation or superior athletic ability, were the standard. Philip Rivers and Drew Brees competing for MVP awards.

If you look at the top 10 list below, you’ll find only a few vestiges of that time, and he happens to be coming off an MVP season otherwise perhaps the results would be different. But after talking to some former top quarterbacks and personnel execs and general managers this offseason, here’s a look at who I consider to be the top 10 QBs on the planet right now.

Key quotes:

• On Caleb Williams (ranked #6) - Get caught up in completion percentage if you must. Longtime NFL QB and analyst Phil Simms thinks that’s overblown, especially when you look at what Williams is asked to do. "With the plays he makes, who cares about his completion percentage?" he told me.
• On Sam Darnold (ranked #7) - The biggest knock on him was getting in his own head and melting down when it mattered most. Seeing ghosts and all that stuff. But after besting Stafford and the Rams multiple times to win a Super Bowl, and putting up consecutive superb seasons with two different teams and two different coaches, we can’t deny him his place here.
• On Dak Prescott (ranked #10) - You don’t make $60M a year by accident – even if you are overpaid – and he’s helped quite a few pieces in that passing offense get paid. "He’s a top 10 QB," the first GM said. Good enough for me.

1) Patrick Mahomes – He is the gold standard among current quarterbacks in the regular season and the postseason. That’s not in question. He is ahead of schedule in his recovery from season-ending knee surgery. He won’t be truly 100 percent until 2027, but this list cannot start anywhere else. "No one should be able to do what he and (head coach) Andy Reid have done," is how one GM put it.

2) Lamar Jackson – Lacking a signature playoff run, but so are most of the QBs on this list. He should have three MVPs already but does have two with two different offensive coordinators and totally different schemes. "You start to worry about running quarterbacks when they hit age 30," noted one former longtime NFL general manager. "But he is doing things we have rarely seen done before. It’s like a more explosive Steve Young."

3) Joe Burrow – One QB has gone to Kansas City during the Mahomes/Reid run and taken them down in a must-win setting. This guy. Who nearly won the Super Bowl that season. Plenty of NFL execs are gushing about the Bengals season and Burrow, a notoriously slow starter, gets a stretch of seven straight 1pm starts to open this season; Burrow is 24-17 in that window with a QB rating of 101.2.

4) Josh Allen – The cast around him hasn’t always been stellar, and he is a unique athletic force of nature to overcome it. The crowded QB situation in the AFC has plenty to do with him not breaking through to a Super Bowl. In his MVP season, Jackson had far superior stats against playoff teams, while Allen tore apart lesser opponents, which explains his spot here.

5) Matthew Stafford – His age and some lingering back issues give me some pause, but he also has the longest body of work on this list by far. Coming off his best season, and an MVP season at that, it’s fair to expect some regression. But this throwback ain’t done yet. "He can’t move like these other guys, but he understands how to compensate for it,’ one longtime personnel exec said.

6) Caleb Williams – Get caught up in completion percentage if you must. Longtime NFL QB and analyst Phil Simms thinks that’s overblown, especially when you look at what Williams is asked to do. "With the plays he makes, who cares about his completion percentage?" he told me. Williams improved exponentially in one year with Ben Johnson as his play caller, he led comeback after comeback and has a knack for game-changing and season-saving plays. Decision making improved despite a shaky offensive line. Fits the prototype of the modern QB with a frame to back it up.

7) Sam Darnold – The biggest knock on him was getting in his own head and melting down when it mattered most. Seeing ghosts and all that stuff. But after besting Stafford and the Rams multiple times to win a Super Bowl, and putting up consecutive superb seasons with two different teams and two different coaches, we can’t deny him his place here. Explosive deep ball passer.

8) Justin Herbert – His playoff meltdowns have been epic; he lacks an iconic victory. He is as polarizing as anyone on this very polarizing list. But he makes throws that very few can and his legs are a weapon; we suspect he has a monster year finally with an offensive coordinator who is worthy of his skills. The Chargers offense has a chance to leap forward and we’re projecting that into his ranking. "(Offensive coordinator) Mike McDaniel is the best thing that could have happened to him," said another GM.

9) Jayden Daniels – Injuries and injury concerns so early in his career are the only thing keeping him from being top five. He is more spindly and slighter than many of the other running QBs, and his second season was marred by injury. What he did as a rookie would have him higher.

10) Dak Prescott – Gets a lot of flack for being a compiler, also lacks playoff superlatives and the Cowboys do tend to run it up against bad defenses. But you don’t make $60M a year by accident – even if you are overpaid – and he’s helped quite a few pieces in that passing offense get paid. "He’s a top 10 QB," the first GM said. Good enough for me.