NFL Insider Jason La Canfora’s Final Draft Column: 10 Picks That Just Make Sense

Mock drafts are a little passe by now. This close to the actual selection process everyone who cares about the NFL has already perused a ton of them, and most will end up being worth very little.

So let’s approach the first 32 picks a little differently.

Rather than try to match every team selecting on the opening night of the draft with a particular prospect, let’s go about it from a different angle. Why not focus on certain situations where years of anecdotal evidence about the decision makers and weeks of conversations with executives and agents and coaches about this draft class has led us, and look at certain couplings that we believe are most likely to happen?

Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta spoke last week about the natural "sweet spot" his team was in in pursuit of an offensive linemen, given how the board is expected to fall and how that position group stacks up versus others both for day one of the draft and beyond.

There are some inflection points between player and needy team that stand out above the rest, and this is an attempt to drill down on those spots. To some degree it’s identifying a floor for the particular player – the lowest point at which he will far no further – and weeding out what we’ve heard is a real connection between player and team and what noise or a smokescreen.

Of the first 32 picks, here are 10 that met that criteria. Okay, nine, because first overall is a lock:

1) Raiders and QB Fernando Mendoza: Duh. He’s the first-overall pick and the Raiders have never been much interested in entertaining trade talks.

2) Giants and LB Sonny Styles: If the Giants stay at fifth overall, getting a dynamic force for their front seven off the edge and a new quarterback of their defense will be too much to pass on at pick 5. If they move around, Styles still might be there. "(Giants coach) John Harbaugh loves him," one GM has maintained to me throughout the process. "He might be the best player in this draft." We don’t think dealing defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence for the 10th overall pick changes much about their first choice (and we lean them going OL at 10).

3) Commanders And RB Jeremiyah Love: Mock Draft Nation keeps making the case for someone to draft him in the top five, but I don’t see it. The top pass rushers deserve to go that high and Mendoza will be in that mix and if another offensive player goes in the top five, we think it’s an offensive lineman and not a running back. Putting Love with dynamic quarterback Jayden Daniels is too much of a sure thing for Washington to pass, even with needs on defense.

4) Chiefs And A Left Tackle: Okay we are playing a little fast and loose here, but we do strongly believe Kansas City is looking to use its first pick on a pass protector for stud QB Patrick Mahomes. You find it mocked much, but Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor and Georgia’s Monroe Freeling are very much in the mix, along with Utah’s Spencer Fano (Chiefs coach Andy Reid is from Utah and this is a more discussed connection).

5) Cowboys And DB Caleb Downs: Dallas needs to fix its defense and numerous executives believe owner Jerry Jones is going to "double-down," as one put it on that side of the ball and grab a defensive back and a pass rusher in the first round. Multiple GMs told me over the weekend they think the buzz about Dallas being willing to trade up is overhyped and Downs is likely to be sitting there for them. Maybe they go corner instead, or pass rusher. But we have a hunch it’s Downs.

6) Rams and WR Makai Lemon: The Rams might not be drafting this high again for quite some time. They seriously considered trading receiver Davante Adams, and this kid is a perfect fit for them. "This kid was born to play for Sean McVay," one longtime evaluator told me. Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson’s return to health has boosted his stock, but we think it’s Lemon if he’s on the board.

7) Minnesota and S Dillon Thieneman: Everyone is mocking this player to this team and I am too. It makes so much sense. My concern is that he ends up being the first safety selected and he’s not around at this pick, but he would be the perfect replacement for longtime safety Harrison Smith, who was the heartbeat of the Vikings defense.

8) Panthers and TE Kenyon Sadiq: Sometimes executives say things as trial balloons and to set expectations with the fanbase, and sometimes it’s to throw opposing teams and the media off what they are really up to. When Panthers GM Dan Morgan said of his top pick – "I wouldn’t hesitate to take another wideout" – peers around the league believed him. Sadiq is technically a tight end but beating people downfield, including from the slot, is what he does and his freakish athleticism would be just what Carolina QB Bryce Young needs in another big target to further unlock this attack.

9) Eagles and DL Akheem Mesidor: Would be a top 10 pick, or just beyond it, if not for two factors – five years of college football tread on him, and he just turned 25. That’s old, especially for someone who works the defensive line. However, down at pick 23, that’s value for an Eagles team that needs to reload its pass rush. He could use work setting the edge but has natural pass rushing instincts and does damage on inside stunts. Seems like a great fit. "If he was 22 or 23 (years old) and not 25, he wouldn’t be in that top tier, but he’d be right behind them," one longtime evaluator told me. "But the age is a big deal." Maybe he goes higher – his game film rivals Bain, his teammate, as Miami pushed for a national title, but this feels like his floor.

10) Texans and OT Blake Miller: Okay at pick 28, there is a lot of variance as to who will still be available for selection. But there is absolutely going to be a run on OL through the 20s; this team badly needs one, and Miller has a real shot to be the last one standing in this tier of talent. Could be Utah’s "other" tackle – Caleb Lomu. Maybe it’s a guard. But this offensive line has to start creeping towards league average ASAP.