Prediction markets let you bet on UFO existence as interest mounts

• Recent remarks about President Trump about declassifying files related to extraterrestrial life gives fresh filip to prediction markets
• Kalshi and Polymarket’s related markets have surged in trading volume reaching $6.7m and $5.8m in volume, respectively
• Overall users remain skeptical about the likelihood of alien life with the trades suggesting that there is less than 20% chance for the US to have evidence of such life

The search for extraterrestrial life has fascinated the minds of modernity, as testified by blockbuster sci-fi works such as War of the Worlds and the Planet of the Apes.

Proof of alien life remains effusive, but people are excited by the idea nonetheless

Yet, once again, proof of alien life seems to be almost within our reach, or so think prediction market platforms which are happy to offer event contracts on whether US President Donald Trump’s order to declassify files related to alien life, extraterrestrials, UFOs and other unexplained events.

President Trump is the second high-ranking state official to spark controversy about alien life after former President Barack Obama recently joked during a podcast that he believed aliens existed, although he had not seen them personally.

Prediction markets are now in on the action, with a market now offered at Kalshi and asking traders whether they believed that the US would confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

As of February 23, the chance of this happening is about 20%, according to daily trading volumes at the platform. The market is not a novelty, though, it has just been reinvigorated by President Trump’s most recent announcement.

The trading volume on Kalshi has reached $6.7m, not a negligible amount, but traders have demurred on becoming overly excited about the existence of alien life, let alone visitors from outer space who frequent Earth.

Over the past months, the market on alien life has been fluctuating between 10% and 20% chance. Skeptics have pointed out that the timing of President Trump’s announcement conveniently fits with a series of domestic troubles the current administration faces.

The Supreme Court of the United States has just deemed the President’s tariffs unconstitutional, the United States is deploying its military in preparation for what appears to be an increasingly-likely war with Iran (another popular event contract to bet on), and the Epstein files, paired with a flagging economy, continue to undermine the administration’s credibility and popular trust.

Polymarket users are also in on the action

Regardless, Polymarket too has set up an event contract asking: "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"

The market has attracted trades of $5.8m, but Polymarket users are generally more skeptical of the likelihood of the US releasing definitive proof of alien life’s existence - the chances based on trading volume are 14%.

Even if the US released files suggesting that there may be alien life, prediction markets may refuse to pay out on this market, arguing that without an actual specimen, that "proof" would be no proof at all.

President Obama did confirm that there were no flying saucers in Area 51, but believing the man would actually require a leap of faith for some.

Image credit: Unsplash.com