Oliveira upsets oddmakers with win over Holloway at UFC 326

• Oliveira secured a surprise defeat over Holloway at UFC 326 over the weekend, completely changing the pre-fight narrative
• Holloway was tipped to win the fight outright, with fans and bookmakers agreeing that the bout would not go the distance
• Oliveira ended up completely defying those expectations, not only outlasting his opponent but also winning via U-Dec

In the lead-up to the March 7-8 weekend, UFC 326 loomed large, with its Main Event set to take place between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira, two massively accomplished fighters, one of whom holds the title of BMF, a laudatory accomplishment that started as a bit of a jest, but was later picked up by the UFC’s marketing machine.

Holloway was a shoo-in for UFC 326, but he was surprised as Oliveira resurged

In the pre-fight narrative, Holloway was coming into the bout with 27 wins and eight losses over his career, and he was largely seen as the favorite. Oliveira, on the other hand, was running a slightly more seasoned fighter’s profile, having fought in 47 fights overall, with 36 wins and 11 losses.

None of the fighters had ever had a draw, meaning that one of the two was always expected to walk out the winner on Saturday, March 7. Fans expected the bout not to go the distance, with many placing their bets on Holloway to defeat Oliveira by either a KO or TKO, which is listed as the same option under sportsbooks.

In retrospect, these expectations made the eventual outcome all the more surprising, as Oliveira managed to turn the tide and secure the victory instead, and in the most surprising manner still - by Unanimous Decision.

Holloway has been known to close out rounds with his signature press, where he hopes to give it his all at the very end and take out an opponent, ending the bout earlier.

The final word rested with the judges

The actual probability of Holloway achieving such an outcome againstOliveira varied ahead of the fight, but they were generally seen as favorable to the BMF titleholder.

Yet once the bout unfolded inside the Octagon, Oliveira was able to overcome those expectations and hand Holloway a defeat, upsetting both the odds and the broader pre-fight narrative that had positioned Holloway as the likely winner.

Oliveira was priced differently, but the odds usually put him as the underdog at (+180), profiting $1.8 on every $1 bet on him, for a total return of $2.8.

In other news, the full Fight Card for the upcoming UFC event at the White Househas been revealed. Some analysts and fans have pointed out that it is much less exciting than originally hoped for.