The Philippines’ gambling paradigm shift – no rest for online gambling

The Philippines is finding itself in a difficult position, trying to navigate between competing interests. President Bongbong Marcos has called himself open to the idea of enforcing stricter measures on eGames hosted and administered by PAGCOR, the national gambling regulator-cum-operator.

President Marcos has also been known to be a man of charm and a man of reconciliation. Much of his political acumen is based on appeasing disparate parties and bringing them together to a table to thrash out a solution, yet the emotional charge surrounding gambling is a subject that the President finds himself contending with.

In this article, I, Matej Novota, Casino Guru’s Head of Research, will cite several key facts about the current state of domestic online gambling regulation in the Philippines, as well as offer my own opinion and view of what the best course of action would be, considering all proposals that have now been put on the table.

A complete gambling ban? Not such a good idea

I was recently interested to read about a Yield Sec report, which said that around 74% of all online gambling in the United States is funneled through illegal gambling operations.

The number looks about right to me, as I know that the Netherlands, a country which has a channelization rate ofabout 90% is also registering 50% of its total gambling spending online with offshore operators.

So, why am I saying this in the context of the Philippines? Because a complete ban on online gambling is unlikely to yield the desired results. As Yield Sec founder Ismail Vali said in the report, "Crime doesn’t stop because you regulate something."

De-regulating is even worse, in my opinion and experience as someone who has spent a decade studying online casinos, offshore operators, and player behavior.

President Marcos, for all his reluctance to take a side outright, has been a tactical negotiator, acknowledging that tougher restrictions or regulations on gambling may be due.

However, he has mostly stayed away from making public insinuations that he would consider a complete ban on domestic online gambling, as demanded by some lawmakers and the Catholic Church in the Philippines.

The President has said that he would be open to imposing stricter measures on gambling, but only if they were "well-studied," suggesting that his view of the activity is aligned with global trends – i.e., an evidence-based approach should lead the way.

When a politician is in doubt: Ask the public

Also, online gambling results have been surging. The first half of 2025 exceeded $2 billion in gross gaming revenue generated for the first time since the activity launched. The economic benefits to the state are hard to pinpoint from where I sit, but the fact that revenue is improving points to a model that works.

Of course, tax revenue should not be the only relevant fact here. Rather, the Philippines should take the economic realities in aggregate, and it’s on this point I want to touch further. For starters, there is no overwhelming opposition to regulated eGames in the country.

At least as far as I can tell, I have studied the market from public sources. Research firm The Fourth Wall published at the end of July a survey of public opinion focusing on online gambling specifically.

The study’s numbers, if accurate and impartial, ought to indicate one thing – there is no real reason for concern that lawmakers who may prove more outspoken in defending regulated gambling would have to sacrifice political capital to do so.

Out of 1,000 interviewed people, 53% said that they opposed a ban on regulated online gambling, and only 18% said that they supported it. Another 16% said that they would back a ban but had their concerns about doing so outright.

In the meantime, there was an almost universal fear that banning online gambling would not stop illegal gambling, which is what I think precisely as well. 75% of those people interviewed responded that they do not believe that a ban would actually stop illegal gambling from proliferating.

This is my exact opinion, as there is nothing to suggest that simply banning an activity would make it go away. Crime is not beholden to the same ethical code and, by definition, relies on governments overstepping and overreaching.

What does it mean for the industry?

The gambling industry does not simply consist of operators who are trying to get customers, however. It’s an entire ecosystem, and once a legal framework is established, a supply chain begins to emerge.

In the Philippines, there are as many as 50,000 jobs that could be at risk if a complete ban is enacted.

This is based on an estimate by the local media outlet Philippine Star, which predicts that a blanket ban could have immediate and adverse economic and labor market consequences that would, in turn, suppress the country’s technological development and innovation.

However, tech companies have agreed that they could implement far more rigorous safeguards surrounding the gambling industry, including "robust due diligence measures."

This means that business is listening and ready to work with regulation, and this is a rare opportunity to not engage in destructive behavior but, rather, seek a way forward that can satisfy everyone.

Another strong initiative has come from the Philippines' central bank, which has also proposed daily cash and time limits, as well as cooling-off periods, to further strengthen consumer protections reasonably.

Measure twice, regulate once

In conclusion, my experience working in regulated and unregulated markets, and having sifted through thousands of customer complaints, I am well aware of the intent behind prohibiting an activity such as online gambling.

Rather than trying to shutter the regulated market and inadvertently fuel the offshore or unregulated one, my recommendation would be to focus all efforts on creating a robust player protection framework that nevertheless empowers and enables online casinos to stay competitive in the face of competition that is not beholden to state or player.

Measure twice, regulate once.

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