NFL Insider Jason La Canfora Gives His Player Futures Picks

It’s not always imperative to jump on NFL player futures before a season begins.

Injuries are a massive issue in football gambling markets and it’s not just regarding the player you are considering wagering on; injuries to key teammates can create more opportunities for him to hit the threshold, or far fewer.

It all depends on the position at play, and if a team is worse, significantly, than many thought it would be and they are chasing games due to a bad defense, then things will skew toward passing, etc.

But in general, I prefer to seek the best value I can find on 2-1 or more payoffs on alternate markets in player props. You can lose me with the -150 to let someone hold my money for an entire football season. That does nothing for me.

I try not to have my player futures too strongly correlated to the teams I have invested in fading or backing, because obviously the risk is greater if that team isn’t what I thought it was going to be. But in a few instances here, I couldn’t resist.

These are my favorite player futures:

Jordan Love to lead NFL in passing TDs (11-1):

I am going to admit that this is the second straight year I have placed this bet. But there is also a lot to like here.

First of all, touchdown machine running back Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioners Exempt list for his off field charges, and that could alter some redzone play calling.

Love has the legs to keep plays alive but isn’t one for keepers and a lot of rushing TDs himself, to cut into the passing total.

He is in a proven scheme with a head coach he knows and who trusts him and the Packers weapons in the passing game look robust.

From Week 10 on the last few years he has played like an MVP, some other top QBs run more and have more injury risk. In his three years as a starting QB, Love is sixth in the NFL in passing TDs. There is still an abundance of untapped potential here.

Baker Mayfield 35+ TD passes (+650):

I know he fell apart last season, but so did the Bucs and he was quite hurt. This guy is at his best with a real chip on his shoulder and his contract impasse with Tampa has provided just that.

Believe it or not, only Jared Goff has thrown more passing touchdowns than Mayfield in the last three seasons (101-95).

No more Mike Evans, but he was losing a step and having the ball spread around a little more evenly in tight quarters isn’t a bad thing. Another guy who can keep plays alive with his legs but won’t be running for many TDs himself. No Tush Push to worry about. He threw 41 TDs in 2024. This should be a competitive division so the push should be on to play starters all 18 weeks.

Caleb Williams to pass for 4000+ yards (+280):

Bears head coach Ben Johnson is a play calling savant, and while they run the ball, and they play outside, this isn’t a crazy number for one of the most talented QBs on the planet.

Williams got used to an under-center offense last year, mastered the footwork and he has a solid line and targets he trusts. The scheme is also the star.

Jared Goff isn’t nearly as talented a QB and he’s smashed 4000 yards passing four years running in Johnson’s offense (even last year without Johnson calling plays) and that was with two starting caliber running backs.

The Bears defense also isn't great and won’t get as many turnovers; Chicago will need to keep scoring and keep throwing to win. Williams had a slow start adjusting to this new system and still threw for 3942 yards last season.

Justin Herbert to pass for 4500 yards or more (12-1):

They finally got rid of run-first, option play caller Greg Roman. They added speed and twitch throughout the offense at every position and both stud tackles should be back.

New coordinator Mike McDaniel is a master of spacing and scheming up yards after the catch and there will be deep shots, too. Heck, pop-gun passer Tua Tagovailoa threw for 4624 yards in this offense in Miami a few years back (and even if you drill down in intended air yards that season it was nearly 4200 yards. Tough schedule in the AFC West but this QB has all the arm talent in the world.

Brock Bowers 1250+ receiving yards (+440):

This tight end is a match-up nightmare, he has a perfect Robin to his Batman in TE Michael Mayer and one of the best play callers in the NFL now running this offense in head coach Klint Kubiak.

He has a QB in Kirk Cousins who excels in under-center play action football that will allow Bowers to get deep downfield. Cousins lights it up with tight ends and Kubiak called more 12 personnel looks (2 TEs) last year in Seattle without this caliber of tight ends than the Raiders used under failure coordinator Chip Kelly.

Kelly was a disaster, as was one-and-done head coach Pete Carroll. Don’t forget Bowers had 1194 receiving yards as a rookie playing with bad QBs.

Even when first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza takes over at QB he’s going to love throwing jump balls to this guy and the Vegas defense is going to be bad; they’ll be chasing games and there is big garbage time potential here.

Jonathon Brooks to rush for 750 yards (+195) and 1000 yards (+550):

This kid looked like a game breaker before surgery derailed his career, but he is all the way back and we’ve heard nothing but rave reviews about the impact he could have since, frankly, before camp even began.

This is a decent offensive line, and they have improved their offensive personnel so teams can’t just totally stack the box like they used to against QB Bryce Young.

This scheme has been solid, and Chuba Hubbard, who the sportsbooks still favor, but who has fallen out of favor in Carolina.

This is a better all-around back than Hubbard, and he’s gone for 900 or more yards in two of the last three years. Brooks could be a real breakout player this season.