Ukraine blocks access to Polymarket over unclear legal status

• Ukraine becomes the latest country to block Polymarket, citing fears about illegal gambling
• Polymarket has faced similar pushback in the US previously before returning, France and elsewhere
• Insider trading continues to be a serious issue for prediction markets

Polymarket has featured markets in Ukraine with abandon. Would the war end by X date, will there be a nuclear strike, and what city would fall next, have all been part of Polymarket’s prediction market repertoire with geopolitical wonks lapping it up.

Polymarket pushed out from Ukraine

Polymarket has, however, been designated an illegal gambling operator in Ukraine, where Internet Service Providers (ISPs) have been directed to restrict access to it. This comes as part of a broader push to protect consumers from predatory unlicensed platforms, the country argued in a recent resolution.

Ukraine has been stepping up efforts to limit the clout of illegal gambling websites, many of which the country fears may be tied to Russia and its war machine. The country has reformed its gambling regulator and even ousted the former top watchdog

Yet, fears of insider trading have been mounting over the past months. In November, an analyst at the Institute of Study of War, a respected Washington, D.C.-based independent research outfit, made "unauthorized edits" to a map of territorial control, supposedly to secure a payout from a prediction market platform - possibly Polymarket.

Insider trading is a growing challenge for prediction markets

The most recent American military overture in Venezuela, which led to the capture and kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro, the very likely illegitimate despot-in-chief, also came along with several huge payouts on Polymarket, after at least one user managed to win over $400,000 by placing multiple bets hours before US President Donald Trump confirmed Maduro’s capture.

All of this has contributed to fears that powerful and well-connected insiders can make a quick buck, with no rules on insider trading applicable to these platforms. Things have not improved after Crypto.com’s CEO, Kris Marszalek, argued that prediction markets do need insider trading.

At the same time, others, such as Kalshi, have said that they would show zero leniency towards users who may have engaged in such antics.

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