Donald Trump's assassination attempt fails, re-election odds increase

The attempt on former US President Donald Trump’s life during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Sunday, was thankfully foiled, but only by pure chance.

A 20-year-old shooter grazed the 45th president’s ear, who collapsed on stage bleeding flanked by a Secret Service detail. The shooting injured two rally attendees, and left one person dead.

Attempt on Donald Trump’s life could become the focal point of the election

The shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, was taken out by a sniper, but the ramifications of his actions will echo from now to November. Outside of the personal tragedy, the political implications are huge.

Trump’s odds for re-election jumped on the news of the assassination attempt, with William Hill, a British bookmaker, giving the former president a 73.3% chance of winning the White House come November.

His odds before Saturday based on William Hill’s prediction model were about 62.5%. This increase in the presumptive Republican nominee’s chances of securing the highest office in the country – and arguably the world – has also been reflected by political betting exchanges.

According to exchanges that operate in a sort of a grey area as political betting by and large remains strictly prohibited in the United States, Trump’s chances of re-election are now closer to 66%, up from 59% before Saturday’s rally.

Pricing models on political elections tend to change rapidly, but the incumbent’s chances of besting his opponent, already undermined by a disastrous early debate against Trump, seem even more remote now.

For their part, President Joe Biden and his Vice President, Kamala Harris, offered messages of support and condemned the violence.

Trump issued a statement on his social media platform, Truth Social, in which he tried to unite Americans rather than score political dividends. The casino mogul and owner of the now-demolished The Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino said:

"In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand United, and show our True Character as Americans, remaining Strong and Determined, and not allowing Evil to Win. I truly love our Country, and love you all."

Political shots fired in US presidential race

Trump has appeared to be out of character in choosing not to assault President Biden – both after the debate – and in the aftermath of the shooting on Saturday. Yet, his supporters used the opportunity to take a shot at Bidne’s campaign.

J.D. Vance, an Ohio senator, and one of the presumed shortlists for a Vice President under a second Trump term, said that the reason why this happened was because Democrats had actively vilified and demonized Trump.

"The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs. That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination," the loyalist vituperated on his X account.

Crooks, though, is a registered Republican, although he had donated $15 to ActBlue, a Democratic outfit.

Image credit: Flickr (@Gage Skidmore