The Worst Airlines for Thanksgiving Baggage in 2025

As millions of Americans prepare to fly for Thanksgiving, a new analysis of U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) data from Casino Guru US reveals which airlines are most likely to lose, delay, or damage luggage during the busiest travel week of the year - and the results spell trouble for passengers booked on major legacy carriers.

Airlines are recovering from the recent government shutdown, which has left staffing gaps, slowed training cycles, and created operational backlogs that experts are warning could persist into the Thanksgiving travel period - even with the FAA’s flight-reduction order now lifted.

Based on DOT performance trends and 2025 operational pressures, around 27,000 checked bags are expected to be mishandled during the Thanksgiving travel window. This is equivalent to one bag every 16 seconds, or roughly one mishandled bag on every 2-3 flights nationwide

Legacy Carriers Rank Worst for Lost Luggage

United Airlines enters the 2025 Thanksgiving travel period as the worst-performing U.S. carrier for checked-bag reliability, closely followed by American Airlines - a striking finding given the scale and resources of both legacy networks.

The 2025 projections show legacy carriers performing the worst for Thanksgiving baggage reliability - a worrying outcome given their size and resources.

Worst Airlines for Thanksgiving Baggage Handling (2025 Projection)

• United Airlines – 6.65 per 1,000
• American Airlines – 6.50 per 1,000
• Envoy Air – 6.40 per 1,000
• PSA Airlines – 5.20 per 1,000
• Spirit Airlines – 5.05 per 1,000

United and American top the list with the highest odds of losing, delaying or damaging checked luggage during the holiday period.

At these rates, passengers on American or United can expect one mishandled bag every two full flights. In practice, that means around half of all flights on these carriers will see at least one bag fail to arrive on time during Thanksgiving week.

Nationwide, airlines are expected to mishandle around 27,000 checked bags during the Thanksgiving travel period — roughly one mishandled bag for every 2–3 flights operating across the country.

Best Airlines for Thanksgiving Baggage Handling (2025 Projection)

While legacy carriers struggle, several airlines stand out for exceptional reliability heading into the busiest travel week of the year.

• Allegiant Air – 0.75 per 1,000
• Hawaiian Airlines – 3.1 per 1,000
• Endeavor Air & JetBlue – tied at 3.2 per 1,000
• Frontier Airlines – 3.7 per 1,000

Allegiant Air ranks as the clear standout, performing nearly nine times better than United and more than eight times better than American. Despite being a low-cost carrier, Allegiant delivers the strongest baggage reliability in the country — a reminder that mishandled luggage has far more to do with operational consistency than ticket price.

Hawaiian, Endeavor, JetBlue, and Frontier also perform significantly better than the national average, proving that a smooth Thanksgiving travel experience isn’t limited to premium airlines. Their stable networks, fewer hub choke points, and leaner operations contribute to dramatically lower disruption rates.

These carriers show that even during peak holiday chaos, reliable baggage handling is possible — it’s just not evenly distributed across the industry.

How Many Bags Will Be Lost This Thanksgiving?

Based on DOT data covering the vast majority of U.S. passenger flights, Thanksgiving 2025 is projected to see approximately 27,000 mishandled bags.

That figure reflects how sharply baggage issues rise during the Thanksgiving rush, when some of the busiest travel days of the entire year fall in a tight four-day window. Even with the FAA lifting its temporary flight-reduction order, major hubs are still operating under stressed staffing levels, a combination that historically leads to more delayed, lost, and damaged bags.

Equivalent to:

• 1 bag every 16 seconds
• 1 bag on every 2–3 flights nationally
• 1 bag every 2 flights on American and United

How Travelers Can Reduce Their Risk

• Passengers flying American, United, Spirit, PSA, or Envoy should take extra precautions:
• Keep essentials and valuables in carry-on bags
• Place trackers (AirTag, Tile) in checked luggage
• Photograph bags before check-in
• Save receipts for bag fees
• Allow time for possible delays at arrival

Travelers with Allegiant, Hawaiian, JetBlue, or Frontier face significantly lower risk - though no airline is immune to holiday pressure.

Methodology

This analysis uses mishandled-baggage data from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Air Travel Consumer Reports (2019–2024). Each airline’s rate reflects the number of delayed, damaged, or lost checked bags per 1,000 handled in November — the most reliable baseline before the holiday travel period.

Thanksgiving travel typically accounts for 15–18% of November passengers, with mishandled-bag rates rising during the compressed four-day surge. A 20% uplift was applied to reflect this historic Thanksgiving spike. November 2024 is used as the primary baseline, with past years informing the typical seasonal increase.

Although the FAA has lifted its emergency flight-reduction order, airlines continue to report staffing and operational pressures following the recent government shutdown. A conservative adjustment was included to account for this expected instability during the 2025 Thanksgiving period.

Sources: U.S. DOT Air Travel Consumer Reports (2019–2024); TSA passenger-volume trends; FAA updates; airline statements.